Briefly
According to the State Border Guard Service and analysis by Opendatabot, more than 37 million border crossings were recorded in 2025. The difference between departures and returns is 290,300 people — one and a half times less than in 2024 (almost 443,000 non-returns). This is not just statistics: over four years of full-scale war, from territory under Ukraine's control, about 3.1 million citizens have officially left and not returned.
What the numbers show
Entries and exits were almost equal — about 18.4 million entries versus 18.7 million exits. 86% of crossings were made by Ukrainian citizens. The monthly average last year was about 2.7 million crossings — slightly higher than in previous years (approximately 2.5 million).
Why the number of non-returns has decreased
Experts interpret these data by combining several factors:
- the mass evacuation in the first year of the war accounted for the largest increase in “non-returns” — about 72% of the total volume over four years;
- later, part of the departures became temporary migration — work, safer routes, education — which increases the flow of people across the border, but does not create a permanent population loss;
- the restoration of economic activity and the partial return of businesses and services stimulate the return of some citizens;
- administrative and mobilization factors also influence decisions to stay abroad or return.
"Ukraine as a result of the war could lose up to 10 million people, including those who left abroad"
— Ella Libanova, director of the M.V. Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Implications for the country
A reduction in the number of non-returns is a positive signal, but not an automatic guarantee of recovery. For the economy and defense, not only quantitative indicators matter, but also the quality of return: age structure, professions, readiness to participate in reconstruction and service. The data show that migratory mobility is increasing, but much of the change is temporary in nature.
Thus, Ukraine faces the task of turning short-term movement of people into long-term returns of workers, families and entrepreneurs — by creating jobs, social guarantees and safe conditions for investment.
Questions for the future
Whether the reduction in non-returns will become a stable trend depends on economic policy, the pace of infrastructure reconstruction and international support. For now the numbers give grounds for cautious optimism; the next step is to turn cross-border movement into a return to a full life in Ukraine.
