Briefly
According to calculations by the agency Reuters, receipts to the Russian federal budget from oil and gas taxes in March could fall by roughly 52% compared with March 2025. That would mean a budget shortfall of about 520 billion rubles (approximately $6.4 billion) — a significant sum for a country whose war machine is partly dependent on earnings from energy resources.
"Receipts to the Russian federal budget from oil and gas taxes in March could fall by 52%"
— Reuters, agency calculations
Why global prices didn't show up in March revenues
The key reason is the mechanics of tax revenue calculation: incomes are tied to indicators from the previous month. So even if oil prices rose due to tensions in the Middle East, that effect has not yet been reflected in March statistics. An additional factor is the ruble's appreciation, which reduces the dollar value of ruble-denominated tax receipts.
Numbers to remember
Reuters provides these benchmarks: for the first three months of the year (January–March) expected receipts from oil and gas will be ≈1.34 trillion rubles (~$17 billion) versus ≈2.64 trillion rubles (~$33.3 billion) last year over the same period. Oil and gas revenues traditionally account for about a quarter of the Russian federal budget and are directly important for financing military operations.
Political and military context
Less money in the federal treasury is not an immediate defeat, but it creates pressure on the Kremlin's ability to sustain prolonged, high-cost operations. Economic constraints force choices between social spending, investment and military expenditure — and that is where a window of opportunity opens for Ukraine and its partners.
What international players are doing
Reuters also notes that on March 12 the United States granted a temporary (30-day) license to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products that are stuck at sea. According to reports, Washington believes this step will not provide significant additional revenue to the Russian government, since major receipts are formed at the extraction stage — not only through shipments that are stranded.
What comes next and what it threatens for Ukraine
In the short term — fewer resources make it harder to finance large-scale Kremlin operations, but Moscow has tools to adapt: tapping reserves, deficit financing, raising domestic taxes, or rerouting supplies to unconventional markets at discounts. For Ukraine the key is to monitor three things: the pace of reserve depletion, changes in Russian tax policy, and trends in energy export flows.
Instead of emotions: the numbers alone do not decide the fate of the front, but they change the aggressor's wallet. Whether these losses turn into a real strategic weakness for the Kremlin depends on how quickly and how coherently partners track financial flows and respond politically and economically.
Sources: Reuters; additional context on the impact of global prices — analysis by LIGA.net on consequences for Ukraine and the fuel market.
