Briefly — the numbers
According to the National Bank of Ukraine, the official rate on March 12 is 43.9776 UAH/$, which is 12 kopecks higher than the March 11 figure (43.8627 UAH/$). The previous record was recorded on March 10 — 43.8961 UAH/$.
Why the rate rose
Analysts, in particular in a LIGA.net piece, link the current fluctuations to several factors: seasonal currency flows, operations of importers and exporters, and the behaviour of the global foreign exchange market against the backdrop of geopolitical events. Decisions and interventions by the regulator that shape liquidity in the interbank market also have an impact.
Will the rate reach 45 UAH/$?
Scenarios differ. According to estimates by leading analytical centres (NBU, ICU, Dragon Capital, Centre for Economic Strategy) — a move to 45 UAH/$ is possible if several negative shocks occur simultaneously: a significant capital outflow, a sharp rise in import demand, or a reduction in foreign currency receipts from exports. Conversely, steady currency inflows, targeted NBU interventions, and moderate import demand may restrain movement toward 45 UAH/$. Detailed scenarios are in the analytical materials of the aforementioned institutions.
"The current increase in volatility is the result of a balance between currency inflows, business demand, and regulator actions; in the coming weeks the key factors are liquidity and geopolitical risks."
— Analysts at ICU, Dragon Capital and the Centre for Economic Strategy
What this means for you
In short: a moderate wave-like change in the exchange rate directly affects import prices, rising energy costs and certain categories of goods. For recipients of foreign currency transfers and exporters — it depends on the direction of the rate's movement; for borrowers in foreign currency — the pressure on solvency changes. For example, with the euro: in January the rate exceeded 51 UAH, which also shows how the dollar's movement and overall currency trends shape the prices of other currencies in Ukraine.
What's next
Short-term — fluctuations are possible. Medium-term — everything will depend on the volume of external inflows, importers' behaviour and partners' decisions. Now it's up to decision-makers: declarations of international support must turn into real financial flows, and markets must send signals to stabilise the exchange rate.
Sources: official website of the NBU, materials and analysis by LIGA.net, assessments by ICU, Dragon Capital and the Centre for Economic Strategy.
