What happened
The National Bank of Ukraine lowered the official hryvnia rate to 42.5634 UAH per 1 USD. The change takes effect on January 7. This is a new historical high for the dollar in the official rate after the previous record of 42.4208 UAH, recorded on January 6 — meaning we've seen record levels for two days in a row.
Context and consequences
Why this matters to the reader: the level of the official exchange rate affects state budget calculations, import prices and business planning. In the 2026 state budget the rate is set at 45.7 UAH/USD (euro — 49.4 UAH), so the official rate is currently below the budget "buffer". This does not mean an automatic jump in prices, but it increases risks for imports and budget calculations if the trend becomes entrenched.
Market fluctuations at the end of the year and early-January factors — payments, seasonal demand for foreign currency and geopolitical uncertainty — may have created short-term pressure on the hryvnia. For households this means: if the pressure persists, rising import costs could gradually be reflected in prices for fuel and imported goods.
"In November the NBU said that it has no targets regarding any specific level of the exchange rate, an exchange rate corridor or a controlled devaluation."
— National Bank of Ukraine
What this means for the budget and the market
A budget based on a rate of 45.7 UAH has room to maneuver, but prolonged devaluation trends reduce that cushion and put pressure on import costs. Defense and social payments that are tied to the exchange rate will be closely monitored by the government — which is why transparent communication from the regulator and finance ministries is important.
Short conclusion
Two consecutive records in the official rate are a signal, not a verdict. For now this is a short-term upward impulse rather than an irreversible trend: subsequent market movements, actions by the NBU and the state of international payments matter. The question for the coming weeks is whether this will turn into a sustained devaluation, or remain a fluctuation that is absorbed by reserves and budget buffers?
