What happened
According to Bloomberg, yields on Japanese government bonds rose by 0.25 percentage points in a single trading session — a rate of change that in Japan previously took weeks or months. This is not a local ripple — a market that was considered “stable” suddenly showed elevated volatility.
"The danger is that Japan was a market that never moved, and now we are dealing with a striking level of volatility. Eventually the market will find an equilibrium rate, but it seems we are not there yet."
— Pramol Dhavan, fund manager, Pacific Investment
Why it happened
The reason is the new economic program of politician Sanae Takaichi, which foresees a large fiscal stimulus and tax cuts. Against the backdrop of already high public debt (approximately 230% of GDP), investors began to demand higher yields as compensation for the risk.
"You could call it a Truss moment — the currency weakens, and long-end yields run out of control."
— Ugo Lanchioni, Neuberger Berman
What this means for global markets
Higher domestic rates in Japan may prompt some Japanese capital to return home. An estimated $5 trillion of Japanese investments are held abroad — this implies pressure on global liquidity and upward pressure on rates in the US, the UK and Germany. There have already been calls at the highest level: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent phoned his Japanese counterpart to discuss the impact of the sell-off on American markets.
Why this matters for Ukraine
Rising global rates have direct implications for Ukraine. Higher yields in developed markets raise borrowing costs for all who compete for investment and credit — including governments and the private sector financing defense and reconstruction. It also increases the risk of currency swings and makes securing long-term financing on favorable terms more difficult.
Analysts note: the reaction of central banks and measured diplomacy with key creditors now matter more than ever. For Ukraine, this means prioritizing the cementing of long-term guarantees and diversifying sources of financing.
Conclusion
The sudden jolt in the Japanese market is not just a local story: it is a reminder of how interconnected finance and security are today. Expect heightened volatility and intensified talks between central banks and finance ministers. For Ukraine, the key task is to turn partners’ declarations into concrete, binding support mechanisms so that short-term market shocks do not undermine the ability to finance defense and reconstruction. Will our partners secure these guarantees before the markets set a new normal for rates?
