If something explodes on temporarily occupied territories on September 18-20, it is likely not a diversionary operation by Ukrainian special services, but a planned provocation. The Foreign Intelligence Service warned: Russia is preparing provocations during the so-called State Duma elections to then blame Ukraine.
Technology, not improvisation
According to the SZR, the scenario will be cautious: explosions at polling stations during non-working hours to get a "picture" without mass casualties among their own propagandists. Diversions on transport carrying electoral commission members. Possible assassination attempts on collaborators — those who have already lost the trust of locals.
The logic is simple: real destruction is not needed, media effect is. Intelligence recalls that during previous campaigns in occupied territories, dozens of local explosions with minimal damage but maximum coverage on propaganda channels were recorded.
Why the Kremlin needs this
The SZR names two practical goals: to justify repression against the local population and to justify another wave of mobilization. There is also a third, strategic one — to derail the diplomatic process mediated by the USA by showing that negotiations are allegedly pointless because "the Ukrainian side is terrorizing peaceful people."
Such actions are a decades-long proven practice of Russian authorities, who use provocations for psychological pressure and to legitimize captured territories.
History repeats itself
The SZR draws a direct line from current risks to the explosions of residential buildings in Russia in 1999, the hostage takings at Dubrovka in 2002 and in Beslan in 2004. This is not an analogy for the sake of drama — it is the same toolkit: create an event that justifies further actions by authorities, regardless of actual perpetrators.
Since 2014, the scheme has been practiced on occupied territories of Ukraine: car bombings, infrastructure shelling, simulated assassination attempts before negotiations or votes.
What residents of TOT should do
Intelligence advises specifically: from September 17 to 21, avoid places where people gather — polling stations, administrative buildings, military infrastructure facilities. This is not abstract advice to "be careful," but clear temporal and spatial guidance for those forced to live under occupation.
The question is whether this scenario will work as effectively this time as before — especially given reports of Putin's declining approval ratings and growing protest moods within Russia, which Zelenskyy mentioned earlier.
