The key August figure is not $48.66 billion in reserves, but $4.85 billion, which the National Bank sold on the foreign exchange market over the month. This is almost the entire amount by which reserves were reduced. The NBU is essentially spending dollars to prevent the hryvnia exchange rate from moving faster than the regulator wants.
Simple arithmetic for the average Ukrainian
If we translate the NBU's operations into everyday logic: the state effectively "pays" the market about $5 billion monthly so that imported goods, medicines, or components don't become significantly more expensive due to a sharp exchange rate jump. This is not an abstract balance sheet figure — this is the reason why the dollar in exchange offices is not $55 or $60 right now.
The practical question: how many more months can the NBU sell $4-5 billion per month if external inflows are declining?
Why aid falls short of spending
In August, $927.3 million arrived in government accounts — nearly five times less than the NBU sold on the market. The World Bank provided the lion's share ($894 million), while other creditors gave only $33.3 million. For comparison: earlier in the summer, external tranches often covered NBU interventions, but now the balance has shifted against reserves.
On a separate positive note, there was conversion of $1.63 billion from the EU's defense tranche under the Ukraine Support Loan program. This money had been on "deposit" with a designated purpose and was not counted in reserves until the government exchanged part of it for hryvnia. Technically it is a replenishment, but in fact — money that was already in the system, simply changing status.
Debt pressure persists
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to service old debts: $721.8 million went to payments on external obligations (World Bank, Eurobonds, OVDPs), while another $285.2 million was an IMF payment. These amounts are fixed by the schedule and do not depend on how much new aid arrives this month.
The National Bank emphasizes that the current level of reserves is "sufficient to maintain foreign exchange market stability" — a formulation that leaves room for maneuver but offers no long-term guarantees.
What to watch for next
The key indicator is not the reserve figure itself, but the ratio of two flows: how much the NBU sells for interventions versus how much arrives from donors. As long as the former consistently exceeds the latter, reserves will decline monthly, with only the pace in question. If inflows from partners don't accelerate in September-October, the NBU will have to either reduce the volume of interventions — which means pressure on the exchange rate — or continue "consuming" its buffer, which has already lost 5% over the past month.
