In high diplomacy, quiet signals matter more than loud statements
The U.S. Intelligence Community in its annual report for 2026 makes a stark conclusion: the threat of escalation of the war in Ukraine extends beyond the region and, if tensions continue to rise, could even develop into an existential threat to the United States. This is not a hypothetical end-state — it is a chain of events that begins with tactical decisions on the battlefield and can reach the strategic level.
What the intelligence community specifically notes
"Russia's war against Ukraine could become an existential threat to the United States of America if escalation continues."
— U.S. Intelligence Community, Annual Assessment 2026
Key risks named in the report include nuclear coercion, the possible use of medium-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and complications arising from the transfer of combat experience and technologies from Russia to its partners. A practical consequence is an increased chance of direct confrontation caused by mistakes or deliberate actions.
Why this matters for Ukraine and Europe
First, a protracted war raises the likelihood that Moscow will seek asymmetric ways to increase pressure on allies — from sabotage of logistics to cyberattacks and air strikes on infrastructure. Second, as the report notes and European intelligence services confirm, Russia currently sees few compelling incentives to end the war, so the risk of further destabilization is growing.
Concrete examples and risk indicators
- Sabotage abroad: the episode of the railway explosion in Poland in November 2025 — a signal that Moscow is prepared to act beyond the battlefield to weaken support for Ukraine.
- Spread of combat experience: North Korean units receiving hands-on practice and technological support increase the overall risk of regional indiscriminate actions.
- Security of nuclear facilities: the situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which LIGA.net has written about, remains a critical security factor for all of Europe.
"Nuclear security at the Zaporizhzhia NPP is under serious threat due to Russian control and the military presence at the plant."
— LIGA.net
What NATO and the EU are doing — and what to expect
Analysts and intelligence services in Europe are already recording that strengthening defensive capabilities and monitoring critical infrastructure have become priorities. Lithuanian intelligence warns of the concentration of Russian forces near NATO borders; The Telegraph reports on operations to purchase real estate that could be used for intelligence and influence. All of this are social and operational indicators that require allies to take concrete steps, not just make declarations.
Short forecast and practical conclusions
If the war drags on, one can expect: an intensification of sanctions and counter-sanctions, the buildup of air defense and cyber defense systems across Europe, strengthened measures to protect nuclear facilities, and a possible increase in NATO military presence in neighboring regions. For Ukraine, this means: increased pressure for the rapid delivery of air- and missile-defense systems, clear de-confliction mechanisms with allies, and a constant focus on protecting critical infrastructure.
A question worth asking partners
Will allies turn their risk assessments into concrete guarantees and material support that reduce the likelihood of large-scale escalation? In major security matters, diagnoses alone are not enough — remedial steps are needed. Ukraine and its partners must act to minimize the window of opportunity for those willing to play for higher stakes.
Some sources and indicators: the U.S. Intelligence Community annual assessment (2026), LIGA.net reporting on the Zaporizhzhia NPP, assessments from Lithuanian intelligence, and materials in The Telegraph regarding the behavior of Russian agents in Europe.
