When the temperature in Kyiv rises by three degrees, the power system receives an additional 100 MW load. Not over the course of a day — immediately. This is approximately the consumption of a small city. This is how Sergiy Kovalenko, CEO of Yasno, explained why the anomalous heat that came to Europe along with Ukraine has become another stress test for the energy sector.
Not an air conditioner in an apartment — an air conditioner in a shopping mall
The common image of "overheating due to home air conditioners" is an oversimplification. According to Kovalenko, the main pressure is created by large industrial cooling systems: office buildings, shopping centers, stores, and enterprises. They consume an order of magnitude more, and all turn on simultaneously.
Where the real vulnerability lies
The problem is not just about consumption. As Kovalenko noted, heat is also physical stress on equipment that has been operating for more than four years under war conditions and has survived numerous Russian attacks. After winter attacks, energy workers managed to stabilize the system and return much of the damaged equipment to operation — but now is exactly the active season for repairs and restoration.
"Part of the infrastructure is undergoing repairs, part is operating literally at the limit of its capabilities. This is why in the coming days the power system will operate under very strained conditions."
Sergiy Kovalenko, CEO of Yasno
According to analysts at Dixi Group, since October 2025, Russian attacks have damaged over 9 GW of generating capacity. The government's goal is to restore 6 GW before the start of the heating season.
Imports as a buffer — but they're also under pressure
Ukrenergo notes: Ukraine is increasing its electricity import capacity to reduce the load on its own generation. However, neighboring countries are also suffering from the heat — this limits available volumes and raises prices. In the worst-case scenario, according to calculations, the deficit could reach 6.2 GW with demand around 15.8 GW — almost 40% of needs.
What's practical about this
- Charge your power banks and gadgets now, not during blackout announcements.
- Follow notifications from your regional energy company — schedules may appear without warning.
- Large consumers (offices, stores) could theoretically shift consumption peaks to night — but there are currently no incentives for this.
Kovalenko expressed hope that this period can be navigated without significant restrictions. However, the fact of the notification itself is a signal: the company is not confident that it will be.
If the heat persists over the coming weeks and at the same time there is a massive strike on generation capacity — will the restored equipment and import reserves be enough to avoid hourly blackouts that were predicted at the beginning of summer?
