On Monday, electricity consumption in Ukraine increased by 7.4% compared to Friday. Ukrenergo explains the reason simply: massive air conditioning activation amid a heat wave that has gripped the entire country.
This surge in itself is not yet a crisis. But it occurs in a system that is already damaged heading into summer.
Why evening is the most dangerous time
Ukrenergo has called on people to shift active consumption to the period from 10:00 to 16:00 — the hours of effective operation of solar power plants — and to minimize the use of powerful devices in the evening, from 16:00 to 23:00.
The logic is straightforward: during the day, solar generation provides a surplus, but in the evening it drops sharply — that's when people come home and turn on air conditioners, washing machines, and ovens. Thermal generation and heat and power plants that previously balanced the system during peak hours are now significantly weakened.
How much more the load can increase
According to Vitaliy Zaichenko, head of the Ukrenergo board, on days of anomalous heat, consumption can increase by 25% relative to current levels — and air conditioners are the main driver of growth, not industry or transport.
«Potentially, after massive attacks, there could be not 2-3 hours, but up to 5 hours of outages during peak periods».
Vitaliy Zaichenko, head of the Ukrenergo board, interview with RBC Ukraine
Zaichenko calls the second half of July and the beginning of August the most challenging period: that's when peak consumption could coincide with minimal nuclear power plant generation due to scheduled maintenance of reactors.
Three scenarios — from discomfort to four stages of outages
The DiXi Group analytical center published three scenarios for the summer season. Director of Research at DiXi Group Roman Nitsovych emphasized: the system enters summer with a deficit of flexible capacity — since October 2025, Russian attacks have damaged over 9 GW of generating capacity.
- Moderate scenario — short-term heat wave without new attacks: deficit is manageable, outages are local.
- Middle scenario — prolonged heat or new strikes: deficit grows to 2.4 GW, probability of restrictions — 38%.
- Crisis scenario — anomalous heat plus strikes plus nuclear plant repairs: deficit of up to 6.2 GW with total demand of 15.8 GW. All four stages of hourly outages simultaneously — including nighttime hours.
According to DiXi Group's assessment, people could be left without electricity even at night — a phenomenon that Ukraine practically never experienced before the large-scale attacks on generation facilities.
What has changed compared to last year
Zaichenko notes: the system has become more resilient — new protected power plants, reinforced substations, development of distributed generation. Industrial batteries are also appearing, but their capacity is still insufficient to transfer all excess solar generation to the evening peak.
In other words, the structural problem — the gap between daytime production and evening consumption — has not disappeared. Air conditioners only aggravate it every year.
If in the coming weeks temperatures in Ukraine remain above +35°C for more than five consecutive days — will available imports and gas generation be enough to maintain the evening peak without introducing outage schedules?
