What happened
According to Reuters, Indian refiners led by Reliance Industries said they are prepared to resume purchases of Venezuelan oil provided clear guidance is received regarding access for non‑U.S. buyers to those supplies. This concerns heavy grades such as Merey, which can be processed by two large Reliance complexes in the state of Gujarat with a combined capacity of about 1.4 million barrels per day.
"We are awaiting clear guidance on access for non‑U.S. buyers to Venezuelan oil and will consider purchasing it in compliance with all requirements"
— Reliance Industries, official statement
Context: why the U.S. matters
The return of Indian buyers to Venezuela is limited not only by commercial terms but also by U.S. policy. In May 2025 Reliance halted imports after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries buying oil from Venezuela. Now Indian companies — including Indian Oil Corp and Hindustan Petroleum — say they will consider purchases only if permits or clarifications are provided from Washington. LSEG data also confirm: in the past Indian vendors regularly imported Venezuelan oil.
What this means for energy flows
If India begins to buy Venezuelan oil in larger volumes, it could become a tool of diversification for the oil market, reducing some buyers' dependence on Russian supplies. However, the key variable remains the political decision in the U.S. — it will determine who can legally and without risk purchase Venezuelan crude.
Implications for Ukraine
This is not directly a media event, but it has strategic significance for Ukraine. A reduction in the circle of buyers of Russian oil could reduce Kremlin revenues, some of which go to fund the war. This is not an instant effect — the market reacts gradually, and Indian companies' decisions depend on a mix of politics and economics. Nonetheless, the possibility that players from a large market like India change their purchasing chains is an important marker for strategic pressure on the aggressor's export revenues.
What to watch next
Watch three steps: official clarifications from the U.S., commercial contracts of Indian refineries, and actual deliveries. If permits are granted, the market could reorient, but this will require time and logistical coordination. For Ukraine this is another argument in negotiations with partners: the energy decisions of buyer countries directly affect the financial flows that sustain the aggression.
Summary: Reliance's decision and that of other Indian refineries is not just a commercial move, but a potential element of a broader geopolitical game. The next move is up to U.S. policy and commercial contracts: from words to deliveries.
