This changes the rules of the game. While we defend our independence and prepare for winter, another enemy is roaming the country — counterfeit goods that steal our money and undermine trust in the market. A new Kantar Ukraine study shows: in October the share of illegal tobacco products jumped to 17.8% — up from 15.4% in July.
The point is not the number itself, but the mechanics of the increase: analysts cite a sharp rise in counterfeits with forged excise stamps as the main cause. These are no longer isolated cases — this is a systemic problem that is eating into the state's resources.
By annual estimates, the shadow market amounts to more than 5.5 billion cigarettes, and losses to the state budget reach UAH 26.5 billion. Nominally, the average annual figure for 2025 remained close to last year, but the October spike is an alarming marker.
Where it hits hardest
Partly the problem is localized: six oblasts make up almost 70% of the shadow cigarette market. The largest shares are Dnipropetrovsk (25%), Odesa (12%), Lviv (9%), Kharkiv (9%), Kyiv region with Kyiv (8%) and Khmelnytskyi (6%).
And one more important point — 65% of illegal products reach consumers through kiosks and shops. That means: counterfeit goods live where we buy everyday items.
Why this is a threat
UAH 26.5 billion is not an abstract sum. It's hospitals, road repairs, social benefits. Western analysts and insiders in fiscal authorities warn: without tougher control and coordination, the fight against counterfeiting will lose momentum.
"Each forged stamp is a direct blow to schools, hospitals and our army. Counterfeits are eroding our economy and security."
– Kantar Ukraine analysts
Photos of forged stamps and the schemes used by suppliers are already being discussed online. The social signal is clear: people notice the problem and demand a response.
What comes next and why this is a historic moment
This is the decisive meeting of reality with the consequences of inaction. Western analysts are calling for coordinated steps: enhanced inspections, digital mechanisms for tracking excise, closer cooperation between customs and police. Insiders say smuggling networks adapt quickly — we must act faster.
For us it is also a signal to Moscow: when the enemy wants to undermine Ukraine not only with guns but also with fake stamps, the response must be comprehensive and decisive. Community, business and the state can and must unite.
This is a moment of choice. We can allow the shadow market to grow into a systemic force — or take control and return these resources to the people. While the world is watching, we must turn these Kantar data into an action plan and a victory for real Ukrainian interests.
