Why this matters now
S&P Global and Bloomberg warn: demand for copper could rise by 50% by 2040 — to about 42 million tonnes — while production is expected to plateau by 2030. In such a scenario the market could face a shortfall of up to 10 million tonnes. For Ukraine this is not an abstract figure: copper is a key component in the manufacture of electrical equipment, energy systems, and defense products. Rising prices and shortages affect the cost of contracted work, the modernization of arsenals, and the restoration of critical infrastructure.
What is pushing demand
Analysts point to several new major drivers of demand: data centres and artificial intelligence, the energy transition (grids, renewables), and increased defense spending. S&P estimates that new sources of demand will add roughly 4 million tonnes by 2040, and the potential mass deployment of humanoid robots could add another about 1.6 million tonnes annually.
"Just three years ago artificial intelligence and data centres were virtually not on the radar. This research shows the world is moving toward a supply deficit even before accounting for these new growth factors."
— Orian De La Nue, Head of Energy Transition and Critical Metals Consulting, S&P Global
Why production can’t keep up
Investment and the commissioning of new deposits are slowing. Because of declining metal content in ores, strict environmental requirements, and long development lead times — on average more than 15 years from discovery to production — large projects are coming online slowly. Of 239 large deposits discovered between 1990 and 2023, only 14 were found in the last decade. Companies are more often choosing mergers and acquisitions (for example, the Anglo American and Teck deal) instead of risky capital investment in new mines.
Geopolitics of supply
Mining is also concentrated: almost 50% of global output is supplied by Chile, the DR Congo and Peru. This adds geopolitical risk to supply chains, especially as large economies build inventories: on January 6 copper in London rose above $13,000 per tonne against a backdrop of mine closures and U.S. stockpiling ahead of possible tariff moves. Morgan Stanley warns of the most severe deficit in 2026 (~600,000 tonnes), and Citigroup does not rule out prices reaching $15,000 per tonne.
What this means for Ukraine
In short: more expensive copper means costlier arsenal modernization, more expensive electrification, and pricier reconstruction. Ukraine depends on imports of components and assemblies; rising prices and tight supplies increase the risk of delays in providing critical materials for the defense industry and the energy sector.
Practical response measures: diversify supply chains with reliable partners, expand recycling and the secondary copper market, undertake strategic procurement for defense, accelerate progress in materials science and substitutes where feasible. Analysts and financial institutions are already signalling: high prices create an investment opportunity, but only if decisions are taken quickly.
Summary
Copper is ceasing to be merely a market commodity — it is becoming a factor of strategic resilience. Economic forecasts from S&P Global, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup provide reasons for immediate state and industrial strategy: from recycling to diplomacy with reliable suppliers. Are Ukrainian politicians and industry ready to turn this anticipated strain into a driver of investment and technological self-reliance?
