Brief summary
Eight OPEC+ countries held a meeting on 4 January and confirmed that production will remain at current levels until the end of March. For the market, this is a choice of caution amid additional political uncertainty related to events in Venezuela.
What was decided
The participants — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — declared they will maintain existing quotas while reserving the right to adjust volumes depending on market developments. Participants spoke about the possibility of a gradual return to the market of 1.65 million barrels per day or about continuing/strengthening restrictions.
"In such a fragile [geopolitical] environment OPEC+ chooses caution, preserving flexibility rather than introducing new uncertainty into an already volatile market. Political changes in Venezuela add another material layer of uncertainty."
— Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy
How the meeting proceeded
According to Bloomberg, the videoconference lasted about 10 minutes and the decision was made almost without discussion. Delegates have not yet addressed the question of Venezuela, where a political coup recently took place — the motivation is simple: it is risky to prematurely assess the market impact amid operational uncertainty.
Facts about Venezuela and market potential
Venezuela has some of the largest proven oil reserves, but current production stands at about 800,000 barrels per day — roughly a third of the level a decade ago and less than 1% of global volumes. Analysts at Kpler estimate that lifting sanctions could increase output by about 150,000 barrels per day over several months, but a return to 2 million barrels per day would require large-scale investment and reforms.
Macro: surplus or deficit?
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a possible record oil surplus in 2026, partly due to rising supply from non-OPEC countries. Trading giants, including Trafigura, warn of the risk of a "super surplus" on the market.
What this means for Ukraine
OPEC+'s decision to keep the status quo has several direct implications for Ukraine:
- Global market prices: the pause reduces the likelihood of a sharp price spike in the short term, but does not eliminate the risk of volatility if conflicts escalate or sanction policies change.
- Europe's energy security: a slow recovery of Venezuelan exports means dependence on reliable suppliers and diversification remain priorities.
- Geopolitical dynamics: preserving flexibility gives key players room to influence the market through political moves — something Ukraine should monitor in the context of energy and sanctions pressure.
"American oil companies will spend billions of dollars rebuilding Venezuela's damaged energy infrastructure after an operation to remove Maduro, but that does not mean immediate and substantial changes in the country's exports."
— Donald Trump, former US president
Possible scenarios for the coming months
- The market remains stable: OPEC+ keeps current volumes, a surplus builds up — downward pressure on prices.
- Gradual increase in supply: countries roll back some restrictions (up to 1.65 million b/d) — moderate cooling of prices.
- Political shocks: a rapid change in the situation in Venezuela or escalation in other regions could trigger a sharp, short-term spike in volatility.
Conclusion
OPEC+ has chosen a cautious strategy: preserve flexibility and avoid adding further uncertainty. For Ukraine, this is a signal to continue diversifying supplies, strengthen fuel reserves and press partners for real investments in market stability. The cartel's next meeting is scheduled for 1 February — by then risks and opportunities should become clearer.
