The global market reacts first — Ukraine feels the consequences
Analysts and traders interviewed by Bloomberg warn: if tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively halted, the price of Brent crude could rise to $100 per barrel within days. This is not hypothetical — signs of such an acceleration have emerged after a series of dangerous incidents in the region and attacks on infrastructure.
What happened
At the end of February and beginning of March, escalation in the Middle East became a reality: a US and Israeli strike on Iran on 28 February 2026, Iran’s corresponding strikes on several targets, and a drone attack on 2 March that forced the largest Saudi refinery in Ras Tanura to suspend operations. Against this backdrop, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has become significantly more difficult.
Why the price could reach $100
The market views a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a blow to oil exports from the Persian Gulf — a major source of global supplies. Heads of large trading firms, who spoke to Bloomberg on condition of anonymity, say the market is underestimating the risk of a prolonged disruption. Any additional hit to supply immediately pushes prices up, because it’s impossible to replace several hundred thousand barrels per day overnight.
“We see Brent reaching $100 and above in the coming days or weeks, once the market accepts that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is an event measured in weeks, not a short-lived disruption.”
— Bob McNelly, president of Rapidan Energy Group, former White House official
Goldman Sachs analysts in a note to clients also warn of a possible breach of $100 if no signs of stabilization appear. At the same time Brent has already crossed $90 (on March 6) — more than a quarter rise in a week.
“Escorting a convoy will only put a target on the ships’ backs. I don’t see a short-term solution, and from my perspective that means higher oil prices, inflation and economic pain.”
— Halvor Ellefsen, director, Fearnley’s Shipbrokers UK
What this means for Ukraine
Rising world prices are already showing up at Ukrainian gas stations — fuel is getting more expensive. For citizens this means higher transport and logistics costs; for businesses — more expensive imported components and higher shipping costs. At the state level, there is a risk of additional inflation, complicating budget planning and possibly increasing the need for additional spending on defense and energy stabilization.
Practical consequences and possible responses
Short term: expect greater volatility in the fuel market; local prices may fall or rise depending on currency moves and logistics. Medium term: the government and businesses must quickly coordinate measures — replenishing fuel reserves, targeted compensation for critical sectors, and accelerating diversification of energy supplies and logistics routes.
Conclusion
The risk of a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not just a geopolitical headline: it is a direct economic challenge for Ukraine. Analysts and traders warn of a rapid rise to $100 per barrel, which would put pressure on inflation, logistics and defense costs. The response should therefore be pragmatic: from prompt market actions on fuel to a strategic energy policy that will reduce our vulnerability in the future.
