Brent fell 4% on the first day after the announcement of the US-Iran deal — to $83.88 per barrel. This is a reaction to the signal, not to reality: the Strait of Hormuz, closed since February 28, 2026, physically remains inaccessible for commercial shipping.
What was signed — and what is missing
On June 14, mediators announced a memorandum of understanding, with signing scheduled for June 19. The document provides for the completion of the conflict within 60 days and the resumption of shipping through the strait. Iran's Mehr news agency reported that under the terms of the agreement, Iran is to open the strait within 30 days. Trump wrote on social media that he will authorize the "duty-free opening" of Hormuz and lift the naval blockade.
But a memorandum is not a contract with an enforcement mechanism. Iran, according to Global Energy Flow, as of June 14 has not officially confirmed its obligations. Even if the protocol is signed — the physical resumption of transit will take weeks after signing: demining is required.
"The market may find itself facing significant supply surplus once alternative sources remain available and flows through Hormuz resume — which could lead to excessive downward price movement."
Vikas Dwivedi, Global Energy Strategist, Macquarie Group
Three barriers invisible from Washington
Even after the strait opens, the market will face structural problems that do not disappear automatically:
- Insurance. Insurance premiums for a single transit of a large tanker have skyrocketed from 0.25% of the vessel's value to 3–8% — that is $3 to $8 million per voyage. Insurers require months of stability before returning to pre-war rates. An agreement on paper does not change this.
- Rebuilt supply chains. Over three months of closure, oil buyers in Asia found alternative suppliers — primarily in the United States. Bloomberg analysts note that many of them may not return to pre-war schemes even if the strait opens.
- Demining. According to Al Jazeera, maritime insurers will not lower rates to the "safe" level just because the fleet announces the strait has been cleared. Verification is needed — and this takes time.
What the figures say
Tanker traffic through Hormuz has fallen by more than 95% compared to pre-war levels. Combined loading from bypass terminals — Yanbu (Saudi Arabia) and Fujairah (UAE) — surged in March–April, but has fallen again since: bypass routes do not replace the strait by volume, they merely demonstrate a structural limitation.
Macquarie strategist Dwivedi estimates that even in the base case scenario — where markets become convinced of the deal's reality — prices will fall by approximately $20 per barrel over a week, then recover to the $65–70 level, which corresponds to fundamental supply and demand indicators. UBS as late as end of May recorded "little evidence" of any improvement in flows.
Diplomacy vs. physics
The US-Iran deal is a political signal, not a logistical solution. The Strait of Hormuz carried about 20% of the world's oil and a significant portion of LNG in peacetime; there are no alternative routes of full capacity. Resumption is a sequence of steps: signing → demining → insurance normalization → return of buyers. Each stage has its own time horizon, and none of them is measured in days.
The question is not whether the strait will open — but how many former buyers of Persian oil will return to pre-war contracts if American suppliers have already gained a foothold in their markets during three months of crisis.
