Why it matters
The rise in global oil prices following the escalation of the conflict in Iran is making biodiesel economically more attractive. To produce it, the EU and the world need more vegetable oils — one of the key raw-material crops here in Europe and Ukraine is rapeseed. This creates a direct incentive for farmers to change crop structures.
What the data and official sources say
According to Reuters citing Deputy Minister of Economy Taras Vysotsky, if fuel prices remain high for a prolonged period Ukraine could increase rapeseed acreage to 1.5 million ha — about 400,000 ha more than now. The agency APK-Inform estimates this could raise the harvest to around 3.8 million tonnes in 2026 (compared with 3.3 million in 2025), and exports in the 2026/27 season could reach 2.7 million tonnes.
"If the situation drags on, then yes — farmers will expand areas under rapeseed and could reach 1.5 million hectares by autumn, which is 400,000 hectares more than now."
— Taras Vysotsky, Deputy Minister of Economy
Limitations and risks
Realising such a scenario is not automatic. Rapeseed in Ukraine is mostly winter-planted — it is sown in the autumn, so increasing acreage "within one year" is technically difficult. There are additional risks: seed shortages, more expensive fertilisers and logistics, as well as trade tensions with partners (for example, a complaint by Spanish farmers to the European Commission regarding duties on soy and rapeseed).
What it means for farmers, the market and consumers
For farmers — an opportunity to earn higher income if oilseed prices are favourable. For the state — a potential increase in foreign-currency earnings from exports. For consumers — a double effect: more expensive raw materials could push up oil prices, but at the same time higher exports and biofuel production will change domestic supply and demand.
Conclusion
If elevated demand for biodiesel continues, Ukraine does have a real chance to boost rapeseed production. However, the key is turning a short-term price signal into a sustained benefit: state logistics, access to seed and fertilisers, and a balanced export policy will determine whether this becomes a long-term advantage for the agricultural sector. Whether the window of opportunity can be seized is a question for the coming seasons and the decisions of government and business.
