$915 million per day — this is not just a new figure. It is the pace at which Russia has been sustaining the war against Ukraine for the fourth year now. In the first quarter of 2026, the Kremlin spent on the military 5.91 trillion rubles — more than ever since February 2022. An analysis based on data from the Russian Ministry of Finance was published by Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International Security and Security Studies (SWP).
Every second ruble — for war
The record is not only in absolute figures. According to Kluge's calculations, military spending consumed approximately 46% of all federal expenditures for the quarter. For comparison: tax revenues for the same period amounted to 8.3 trillion rubles — meaning the military took two-thirds of all revenue that came into the budget. At the beginning of the year, Moscow planned to reduce the share of defense in GDP from 7.8% to 6.2%. By the end of the quarter — already 12% of quarterly GDP, and if the trend continues, the annual figure could reach 9–10%.
The increase in spending is primarily in the classified budget item. Kluge does not rule out accounting maneuvering: part of the expenditures could have been transferred from the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026 to avoid exceeding the planned deficit. The full picture will become clearer in August–September, when data for the second quarter is released.
Economy contracts for the first time
Parallel to record spending — a record deficit. Over four months of 2026, it reached 5.9 trillion rubles, exceeding the annual plan by 50%. Over five months — already 6 trillion, twice more than a year ago. Oil and gas revenues fell by almost 30%, and growth in non-oil and gas revenues of 12.4% — is not a sign of recovery: it has been achieved through increased tax and customs burden. The GDP growth forecast has been lowered from 1.3% to 0.4%, and in the first quarter, the economy contracted for the first time in three years.
«Russia's economy is balancing on the brink of recession»
Espreso, citing Kluge's analysis and Russian Ministry of Finance data
Recruitment slows — despite record bonuses
There is one more detail that the figure of $915 million/day does not convey. According to Kluge's data, in the first quarter of 2026, the rate of contract signings decreased by 20% compared to last year — to approximately 800 people per day. This is not happening due to lack of demand from the Ministry of Defense: regions continue to increase recruitment bonuses, with the average regional bonus already reaching a record ~1.5 million rubles. Waging war is becoming more expensive and harder to recruit people for simultaneously.
- Spending increased 4.6 times compared to the first quarter of 2022
- +68.7% compared to the same quarter in 2024
- +129% compared to the first quarter of 2023
- In total, since February 2022, Russia has spent approximately $532 billion on the war
The question is not «how much» but «how long»
The Kremlin is demonstrating that there is enough money — at least for now. But simultaneously falling oil revenues, recession, a deficit twice over plan, and slowing recruitment — these are not separate problems but components of one equation. If oil remains below $60 per barrel through the end of 2026, will Russia be able to maintain its current spending pace without structural cuts to social programs — and will the population notice this before the Kremlin manages to explain it?
