IMF Says Conditions Met: New Credit Program Gives Ukraine Financial Breathing Room — but with "Warning Signs"

The Fund confirmed that Ukraine has completed the prior actions — the budget was adopted and the Labor Code was submitted. A decision by the Board of Directors is expected in the coming days; this reduces the risk of a short-term financing gap, but postpones a number of unpopular reforms to be addressed under the program.

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Фото: EPA

What happened

The International Monetary Fund has officially acknowledged that Ukraine has fulfilled the prior actions required to launch a new lending program. At a briefing the fund's spokesperson Julie Kozak confirmed that the government submitted a draft Labor Code to parliament on 19 January, and the 2026 budget has been adopted and aligned with the program’s objectives.

"The authorities [of Ukraine] have completed all the prior actions necessary to advance the request for a program. On 19 January a draft Labor Code was submitted to parliament, and in December the 2026 budget was adopted and aligned with the program’s objectives. Going forward, the program and the documents that will be published after the Executive Board meeting will set out the near-term conditions and commitments that will support its implementation," she said.

— Julie Kozak, IMF spokesperson

Context and numbers

In November the fund and Ukraine agreed on a preliminary framework for a four-year program worth more than $8 billion. It is intended to replace the existing $15.5 billion arrangement, about $10.6 billion of which has already been disbursed. After the IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva’s visit in February, the fund agreed to advance the program without a number of stringent upfront requirements.

What was moved to "benchmarks"

Some of the fund’s most unpopular requirements — for example, a tax on income from digital platforms, elimination of the duty-free parcel threshold of 150 euros, and the introduction of VAT for individual entrepreneurs with turnover over 1 million UAH — have not been rejected, but have been moved into the system of benchmarks. According to the first deputy of the Finance Committee Yaroslav Zhelezniak, most of those dates fall on 31 March 2026.

"All unpopular steps have been moved into 'benchmarks', most — with the date 31 March 2026," he said.

— Yaroslav Zhelezniak, First Deputy of the Finance Committee of the Verkhovna Rada

Why it matters for every Ukrainian

First and foremost — it’s about money and stability. Without a new IMF program and synchronized EU assistance, the country risks facing an acute financing shortfall already after the first quarter of 2026. The program’s approval now significantly increases the chances of timely tranches and allows the government to have the financial cushion necessary for payments and defense needs.

Risks and next steps

Moving unpopular measures into benchmarks is a compromise: it buys time and reduces political pressure now, but it preserves conditionality for reforms. If Ukraine fails to meet the benchmarks on time, this could lead to tranche delays and increased pressure on the budget. The next step is a vote by the IMF Executive Board and the formalization of documents that will define the near-term commitments.

Conclusion

This decision is a signal that international partners are willing to give Ukraine time and resources provided the agreements are implemented. For citizens it means a lower risk of a short-term financial shock; for the authorities — a clear schedule of commitments for which they will have to be held accountable if unmet. The key question now is whether the postponed steps will turn into a sequence of genuine reforms rather than become a pretext for another round of political bargaining.

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