Money loves silence, but these figures are worth knowing
According to investment bank Morgan Stanley, published in the Financial Times, the implementation of artificial intelligence and subsequent digitalization could lead to cuts of about 10% of employees at European banks by 2030 — roughly 212,000 people. The forecast is based on an analysis of 35 large banks and emerged amid investor pressure to improve profitability.
Who is at risk
The most vulnerable units are central services: back- and middle-offices, as well as risk management and compliance divisions. These are not only mass transaction-processing roles but also positions where AI and automation deliver a quick effect on the cost-to-income ratio — the key metric investors monitor.
“Many banks report efficiency gains from AI and subsequent digitalization of up to 30%”
— Morgan Stanley (cited by the Financial Times)
Why it is happening now
The reasons are combined: after several rounds of cuts, the potential for conventional savings has been exhausted, and investors are demanding better metrics compared with American competitors. AI gives banks a tool to rapidly improve the cost-to-income ratio and becomes a catalyst for new restructurings.
“There is nothing sacred in a campaign to reduce stubbornly high costs”
— Sławomir Krupa, CEO of Société Générale
Consequences and possible responses
The situation has several practical dimensions. First, for employees — the risk of job loss where tasks are routine and standardized. Second, for the economies of countries with large banking sectors (France, Germany) — increased pressure on the labor market and the need for retraining programs. Third, for the tech ecosystem — demand for data specialists, AI engineers and cybersecurity experts.
There are already examples: Dutch ABN AMRO announced cuts of about 20% of its workforce by 2028; major banks call AI a “catalyst for restructuring.” These are not just numbers — they are a signal to politicians, employers and workers that time to adapt is limited.
What this means for Ukraine
Direct cuts in European banks are not a local problem: they are part of a global transformation of financial services. For Ukraine this is both an opportunity and a risk. Opportunity — to export IT services, offer back-office outsourcing, and develop training programs in data and AI. Risk — without a systemic policy of retraining and labor support, some skilled workers may come under pressure.
Conclusion
Now the ball is in the courts of banks, governments and the labor market: declarations about digitalization must turn into social adaptation strategies. While bank managers calculate potential savings, decisions to redirect resources toward retraining and protecting vulnerable groups will determine whether the transformation proceeds painlessly.
One final question: will European and Ukrainian institutions be able to turn AI risks into an investment in workers, rather than into additional waves of unemployment?
