June gave Ukrainians a statistical rarity: consumer prices fell by 0.1% compared to May. The State Statistics Service recorded deflation — a phenomenon that looks almost paradoxical given the conditions of war and inflationary pressure. Annual inflation meanwhile slowed to 7.2% from 8.2% in May.
But behind the figures lies a specific reason: egg prices fell by 27.8% in a month. This is a seasonal norm — summer reduces demand and increases supply. Overall, food products and non-alcoholic beverages became cheaper by 0.8%, clothing by 1.9%, footwear by 3%, fuel and lubricants by 1.6%.
What grew while eggs fell
Parallel to deflation in supermarkets, utilities raised their tariffs. Water supply became more expensive by 15.3%, sewerage by 14.6%, which caused a general increase in housing and communal services by 0.9%. Railway passenger transport added 3.4%, tobacco products 1.8%.
Utility companies explain the tariff increases as a question of "survival" for critical infrastructure that was previously maintained through subsidies.
RBC-Ukraina
Among the key factors are a sharp increase in electricity costs for pumping and water treatment, higher fuel and reagent prices, and financing emergency repairs on worn-out networks under martial law conditions.
Seasonal effect versus structural pressure
Core inflation — a measure cleaned of seasonal fluctuations and administratively regulated prices — stood at only 0.3% per month in June and 12.1% on an annual basis. This is what shows the real price pressure in the economy without seasonal "gifts."
The NBU warned back in spring: the summer slowdown in inflation would be temporary. According to the regulator's forecast, in the second half of the year inflation will accelerate to 9.4% by year-end — due to intensifying pressure on production costs, primarily from rising energy prices. The NBU does not expect a return to the target 5% before 2028.
- Became cheaper: eggs (−27.8%), footwear (−3%), fuel (−1.6%), clothing (−1.9%)
- Became more expensive: water supply (+15.3%), sewerage (+14.6%), railway transport (+3.4%), tobacco (+1.8%)
June's deflation is not a trend reversal but a seasonal window. The question is how quickly a new wave of tariff increases in the utilities sector will erase what was saved on eggs and discounted clothes: if the NBU does not revise its forecast downward and the water utilities tariff reform continues at the current pace, autumn will return the sense of June's "deflation" to the category of statistical curiosity.
