Crisis is not so bad after all. Through crisis, something gets resolved. Something that cannot be resolved without a crisis. But given how critical the current historical moment is for the Ukrainian people and state, this crisis is very dangerous.
Is there a danger of demoralization in society?
Of course, it is very upsetting when units need drones, cars, various equipment, and soldiers have to buy a lot of necessary items themselves, while important gatherings are suspended due to lack of funds - and at the same time, "people close to the top" are openly looting on an unimaginable scale.
However, those who see the current crisis as a danger to the moral and psychological resilience of society and the army are probably mistaken. Didn't we know who these people are? Is it not written on the faces of those scoundrels who they are? You don't need to be a physiognomist to analyze micro-expressions. Because there are no micro-expressions, there are macro ones. And deep down, even those who were pleased with their choice in 2019 have probably long understood what is what.
Ukrainian society and the military continue to resist not because they "believe in the leadership," but simply because we have no other way out. We see what is happening in the occupied territories:
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the terrible crimes committed by the invaders;
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how systematically and fundamentally everything Ukrainian is being exterminated, how school programs are being restructured, how "unreliable" individuals are disappearing;
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how men in occupied territories are being "drafted" into the occupying army and thrown into suicidal assaults (as evidenced by 16% of Russian prisoners of war being citizens of Ukraine), since this is the familiar and understandable Moscow model of waging war - advancing over the corpses of soldiers recruited from the recently "liberated," that is, actually occupied, territories;
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how a humanitarian catastrophe is gradually approaching, as the occupying authorities have no intention of seriously engaging in the development of the "new territories."
We know what the Moscow "new order" is - an analogue of the German-fascist Neuordnung. This awaits all who remain "under Moscow." And the wave of forced migrants and evacuees from the territories approaching the enemy is growing larger.
We know what awaits us. The resistance of Ukrainian society, primarily its sober part, is fueled by the awareness of an existential threat. And not by loyalty to the state leadership. Therefore, the serious demoralizing effect of yet another theft, even such a large-scale one, will obviously not occur.
The danger of halting aid
We also know that without external assistance, we will not be able to withstand. And "large-scale theft" obviously discredits Ukraine in the eyes of our partners. The global right-left and pro-Russian political margins are already crying out: "Ukraine should not be helped because they are stealing our taxpayers' money!"
But the conditional "collective West" probably already knows well who stole what and where the money went. Western intelligence makes many military-strategic mistakes and often prepares erroneous political decisions, but they track money precisely. The infrastructure for tracking and combating the illegal flow of money actually works.
Anti-corruption institutions in Ukraine were not created "with the assistance" of the West, but rather under its direct pressure. And in general, Uncle Sam really does not like it when his dollars are stolen. Like a true cowboy, he can take a long time to harness, but he drives fast. Therefore, the unyielding and powerful "Ukrainian" thieves will, one way or another, face consequences - although they may not realize this yet, as everything has been going so well for them.
Russia, which has broken and overcome Ukraine, and reached the borders of the EU, is unwanted by anyone. Political leaders in the West generally understand, although perhaps not fully, all the threats of such a scenario. Therefore, military assistance will not be withdrawn from Ukraine.
What to expect
Undoubtedly, pressure on the political leadership of Ukraine will increase. Our Western partners will demand personnel changes, and perhaps behind the scenes - seriously blackmail, and will indeed press those they are targeting. Let’s not name names, as everyone knows who will be pressured and what decisions will be demanded.
The government of the mono-majority is obviously at an end. Ukraine urgently needs a national salvation government. Do not confuse it with a "government of national unity." There will be no unity, as it is unclear who will unite with whom. And enough, they have already united.
It is quite possible that by the end of the current week, much will become clearer.
