Essence of the report
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) warns that Russia plans to use an international investment fund, created for the post‑war reconstruction of Ukraine, not so much as a source of aid as a mechanism for imposing political will. This is a combination of economic leverage, partnership agreements and information campaigns that could be used to weaken Ukrainian sovereignty and rehabilitate the image of the aggressor.
"In addition to military and political measures, Russia plans to use economic incentives to subdue Ukraine. One of these instruments could be an international investment fund, supposedly established to support the post‑war reconstruction of Ukraine."
— Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (report)
Which mechanisms of influence does the report mention
Control over resources. The fund could be financed primarily from frozen Russian assets; Moscow will try to retain influence over the allocation of these funds by imposing political conditions.
Hybrid partnership. The report mentions the involvement of China as a minority partner — this weakens transparency and creates diplomatic complications for Western guarantees.
Information and educational campaigns. Part of the resources could go to projects that change perceptions of Russia among the local population and the international community.
Brief facts from the report and accompanying statements:
- On 6 February President Zelensky reported that Russia offered the United States an economic deal worth $12 trillion; a Putin envoy presented this idea to US representatives.
- Ukraine will categorically not support deals made without its participation and will not recognize the Russian legitimation of the occupied territories of Donbas and Crimea.
"Ukraine will not support deals like the 'Dmitriev package' concluded without it, and will not recognize Donbas and Crimea as Russian temporary occupied territories."
— Sibiga
What this means for Ukraine and its partners
The risks are practical and political: the legalization of external influence through financial levers, weakening Kyiv's negotiating position and legitimizing Moscow's narratives. Analysts note that without clear governance mechanisms and transparency the fund could become an instrument of hybrid expansion rather than a reconstruction mechanism.
As a response, clear, legally grounded guarantees are needed: mandatory Ukrainian participation in fund management, multinational oversight, public reporting and project verification mechanisms so that frozen assets do not turn into a resource for a new form of pressure.
Conclusion. The EFIS report is a reminder that post‑war recovery can become a political battlefield. The ball is now in the partners' court: declarations of aid must be turned into tools of governance and control so the fund does not become another instrument of influence against Ukraine.
