Russia has reduced crude oil exports after Ukraine changed its strategy for striking aggressor facilities. This was reported by Bloomberg on Tuesday, August 4.
Based on tanker movement tracking, Russian crude oil exports fell below 4 million barrels per day for the first time in six weeks.
What Changed in Tactics
The transition by Ukraine's Armed Forces to attacks on tankers in the Black and Azov Seas, as well as on storage facilities in western Russia, gave Russian oil refineries a brief window in the second half of July to conduct maintenance and increase processing volumes. This likely reduced the volume of crude oil available for export.
However, the situation may change again: last week, Russian refineries became targets of Ukrainian drone attacks once more. Rosneft's Ryazan refinery was hit shortly after resuming operations, which had lasted nearly two months following a May attack. Lukoil's refinery in Volgograd with a capacity of 300,000 barrels per day also came under attack, as did an industrial site in Ufa with three Bashneft plants and a Rosneft facility in Saratov.
This Week's Numbers
Crude oil shipments from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk last week remained significantly below peak levels due to Russian safety concerns. Supplies from the Arctic port of Murmansk also dropped sharply following a surge in activity the previous week.
In the week through August 2, 35 tankers loaded 24.61 million barrels of Russian crude oil. A week earlier, 40 vessels transported 29.47 million barrels.
On a daily average basis, exports fell to 3.52 million barrels per day from a revised 4.21 million barrels per day a week earlier. Shipments from Novorossiysk remained at approximately half recent peak levels, and only one tanker departed from Murmansk — likely due to loading schedule specifics.
Money Despite Volume Decline
Since the beginning of the year, average export volumes have been 3.63 million barrels per day — 300,000 barrels more than the average for the entire previous year and above the annual average volumes of each year after the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Russian oil exports rose to $1.69 billion per week for the period through August 2 — $60 million more than the previous four-week period. The reduction in physical volumes was offset by price increases: the average price of Urals rose by nearly $6 per barrel.
The Russian authorities continually balance between two goals: exporting more oil for currency or processing it domestically to supply the military, transport, and civilian sectors with fuel. Ukrainian strikes are making this choice increasingly difficult.
- An increase in Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries has triggered a fuel crisis in Russia. According to Financial Times, from the beginning of 2026 through July, at least 194 attacks have been carried out — 11 times more than last year.
- On August 3, it was reported that oil refining rates in Russia fell to their lowest level since 2002 following Ukrainian strikes.
The question is whether this balancing model will withstand another cycle of refinery strikes — if processing continues to fall, Russia will either have to increase crude oil exports at the expense of the domestic fuel market, or reduce both simultaneously.
