What happened
Reuters reports that India, one of the world's largest fertilizer importers, is in talks to increase purchases from Russia, Belarus and Morocco. The reason is supply risks ahead of the summer planting season: the conflict in the Middle East and export restrictions from China could reduce deliveries.
There is no shortage now: stocks are larger than last year. But Reuters sources warn that if the war drags on, the situation could become more difficult.
"We have more stocks than last year, but if the war drags on, the situation could become more difficult. So we are contacting Russia and other countries to secure additional supplies in the coming months."
— An Indian government interlocutor (speaking on condition of anonymity)
India imports carbamide (urea), DAP (diammonium phosphate), potassium chloride and liquefied natural gas (LNG) — the latter is needed to produce urea. A large share of DAP and urea supplies comes from Middle Eastern countries: DAP is mainly from Saudi Arabia, urea from Oman.
"Before the war there was enough supply on the urea market, and prices were below $425 per tonne. Now supplies are limited, and prices have risen above $600."
— Representative of a fertilizer manufacturing company, Mumbai
Why this matters for Ukraine
The moves of a large importer like India redistribute global fertilizer flows and affect prices. For Ukraine this has several key consequences:
- Rising fertilizer prices make planting more expensive: the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club is already warning of the risks of crop losses for cereals and oilseeds due to shortages and higher costs.
- Logistical shocks (for example, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz) can accelerate supply shortages and create instability in the fertilizer market.
- Dependence of urea production on gas increases vulnerability: in the event of LNG supply restrictions, the cost and availability of fertilizers decreases.
Market statistics already show increases: ammonium nitrate is up 37%, urea — up 43%, UAN‑32 — up 54% compared with 2025.
What to do and what to expect
The response must be comprehensive — diplomacy, logistics and domestic policy.
- Diversifying supplies and creating buffer stocks for the planting season is a top priority for governments and agricultural companies.
- Supporting domestic fertilizer production or switching to alternative plant nutrition technologies will reduce dependence on external shocks.
- Dialogue with partners to secure routes (maritime and land) and to prioritize supplies for critical sectors (including agriculture) — an international task where Ukraine's interests intersect with those of many countries.
Analysts note that if supply disruptions continue, the price increases for food could be felt by ordinary consumers within the coming months.
"Money loves silence: big supply deals are settled off the headlines. For farmers, what matters are not loud statements but a steady flow of fertilizers and gas."
— Expert in agricultural logistics
The question for Ukraine now is simple and critical: will the state and the agricultural sector be able to turn early warnings into concrete measures so the planting season proceeds without losses? The answer will determine not only the harvest but also food prices for consumers.
