Money loves silence: what is already happening
Representatives of the National Bank stated at a briefing that fuel price increases have already affected Ukraine's macroeconomic picture. This news is important not only for economists — it directly impacts retail prices, the budget and the country's security.
"In fact, we already have fuel price growth in March of 12.5%. Most likely, this figure will rise to 16%. The contribution to annual inflation from rising fuel prices, if they are sustained, will be about 0.45 percentage points."
— Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, Deputy Head of the NBU
The NBU emphasizes that possible secondary effects — since the cost of fuel is built into the price of final goods. According to the regulator's estimates, second-round impacts could double the primary effect on inflation.
NBU's position: economy and security are intertwined
"The war in the Middle East, unfortunately, creates additional fiscal space for Russia to continue and wage war. The second point — a protracted conflict can create a certain deficit related to the need to maintain an adequate level of air defense. Together with the fiscal effect, the risk of intensified shelling increases."
— Andriy Pyshnyi, Head of the NBU
Global oil and gas prices jumped after strikes on facilities in the region: on exchanges and in news agency reports global quotes already exceed $110 per barrel. The NBU warns that if prices settle in the range of $80–100 per barrel, the value of imports could rise to $3 billion, which would worsen the trade deficit and put pressure on the hryvnia.
What this means in practice: three key consequences
1. Inflationary pressure. If fuel price increases are sustained, the contribution to annual inflation will be around 0.45 percentage points, and with second-round effects — significantly more.
2. Fiscal burden and security. Higher prices provide the aggressor with additional revenues. This increases risks for our budget: more spending on defense and air defense, and potential intensification of attacks.
3. Trade balance and the exchange rate. Rising costs of energy imports create additional pressure on the balance of payments and require either currency support from partners or stronger domestic economic stabilization.
Why this happened and what to do
The cause is a geopolitical shock: strikes on gas and oil refining facilities in the region and risks of blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This is not only a market fluctuation but also a strategic shift in the distribution of risks for energy flows.
The response must be comprehensive: monetary measures by the NBU to contain inflation, fiscal discipline, as well as diplomatic and material support from partners to offset the external economic shock. Exports of agricultural products can mitigate some effects, but they do not replace the need for external financing and defense resources.
Conclusion
Rising energy prices are not only an economic challenge but also a security factor. The NBU provides clear figures: there is already an effect on inflation, and at higher prices we face increased fiscal pressure. The question is whether partners will turn declarations of support into concrete instruments that will reduce risks to Ukraine's budget and defense.
Will we have enough time and resources to maintain macroeconomic stability and prevent the aggressor from exploiting the new "fiscal space"? The answer depends on the speed of decisions in Kyiv and the willingness of our partners to act.
