India's state-owned Indian Oil purchased Russian oil in May at a rate of 907 thousand barrels per day — 28% more than a year ago, and also a record. This is not commercial optimization. This is panic before a deadline.
What deadline and why it emerged twice
The Trump administration in March 2025 introduced a temporary sanctions exception: Indian refineries could purchase Russian oil already loaded onto ships for another 30 days. Then — it extended it again until May 16.
But they did extend it. According to Business Standard, the extension met "active political opposition" within Washington — meaning there is no consensus even in the White House about how hard to press Delhi."We will not extend the license for Russian oil"
— U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, statement before the second extension
Why now — and the second reason, Iranian
Parallel to the Russian deadline, Indian refineries lost access to Iranian oil due to American-Israeli strikes. According to Business Standard, in March-April India was already falling short of February import volumes by approximately 15% — meaning the deficit is real, not hypothetical. Russian oil was filling this gap.
Symptomatically, Reliance Industries — a private company oriented toward exports to the EU — conversely reduced purchases from Russia to 292 thousand barrels per day. The reason: new EU rules prohibit using Russian oil to produce fuel that then goes to Europe. In other words, the same commodity becomes acceptable or unacceptable depending on where the gasoline ends up.
What happens after May 16
India officially states that it purchases oil purely for commercial reasons and has diversified supplies to 41 countries. But according to Kpler, even after the end of peak May, monthly Russian imports are projected to remain at 1.9 million barrels per day — still higher than any month before 2023.
- Alternatives partially exist: the United States as an LPG supplier, Canada and Angola under consideration.
- But replacing the volume quickly is unrealistic: the Middle East is unstable, and long-term contracts require time.
- Washington, according to Al Jazeera, has already doubled tariffs on Indian goods specifically due to the oil factor.
May's record is not a trend, it is a reserve. The question is whether this reserve will be enough for India until the next American decision, or whether Delhi will have to officially choose between cheap oil and access to the U.S. market.
