Why this matters right now
Volodymyr Kudrytskyi's interview with LIGA.net sounded like a technical warning: the country has a limited window of time until the next heating season, and a large share of measures to boost the energy system's resilience will no longer have time to affect its course. This is a security issue — not abstract statistics: the stability of electricity supply determines heating in hospitals, the operation of municipal services and people’s lives in the harshest frosts.
Main point of Kudrytskyi's statement
Kudrytskyi emphasizes that rolling out large-scale decentralized capacities takes time: technical procedures, procurement and grid connections. Therefore, no significant effect should be expected before the start of the next heating season — at best, the consequences can be partially mitigated.
"Since we are speaking in mid‑February, we have nine months until the next heating season. One can say that we will no longer manage to deploy any significant additional amount of decentralized generating capacity"
— Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, former chairman of the board of NEC "Ukrenergo" (interview with LIGA.net)
What can be achieved in time
According to Kudrytskyi, short-term measures are realistic: fortifying large power plants and substations, and the deployment of 500–600 MW of additional decentralized gas generation. This will not solve the problem radically, but it will reduce the scale of emergency outages in the event of new attacks.
At the same time, the current management of Ukrenergo (Vitalii Zaichenko) estimates the long-term need at roughly 9.5 GW of new generation — gas‑fired power plants, biofuel thermal power plants, energy storage installations and "green" generation. The estimated cost of such a project is over €8 billion. This is a marker for international partners and investors: the speed of financing will determine how quickly the country's energy resilience grows.
Context of attacks on the energy sector
Since autumn 2025, Russia has systematically attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure with massive missile and drone strikes; the peak fell in January–February 2026 during an unusually cold winter. According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, on territory under government control there are practically no large power plants that have not been shelled (excluding nuclear).
"Accordingly, if strikes of the same intensity as during this winter continue, and similar severe frosts recur, the next winter will also be difficult"
— Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, former chairman of the board of NEC "Ukrenergo" (interview with LIGA.net)
How realistic the plan is and what comes next
The realistic plan has two components: short operational steps (fortifications and 500–600 MW of gas generation) and a medium‑term program of 9.5 GW over roughly 2–3 years. The first provides local risk mitigation; the second — a fundamental increase in network resilience. The questions are the speed of financing, procurement logistics and investors' willingness to operate under wartime conditions.
Energy market experts and Ukrenergo's leadership agree: it is impossible to completely avoid risks in the short term, but it makes sense to concentrate on measures that deliver the maximum effect in the shortest possible time.
Conclusion
The scenario for next winter depends on two things: the intensity of the strikes and the speed of implementation of protective and generation projects. The question for international partners and the market is whether they are ready to transform political declarations into financial and technical solutions quickly and at scale. Without that, the coming heating season will remain a test for infrastructure and society.
