Briefly
According to Reuters, Reliance Industries does not expect shipments of Russian crude in January. The company, which operates the world’s largest oil refining complex in Jamnagar, has not received cargoes of Russian oil for the past three weeks. That likely means Indian imports of Russian crude will fall to their lowest levels in years.
Why this happened
The decision is the result of a mix of commercial and political factors. First, there are signals of heightened transaction and logistics risk because of sanctions, as noted by analytics firm Kpler. Second, pressure from the US has been important: media reports highlighted warnings from Donald Trump about possible increases in import tariffs on India due to large purchases of Russian oil. Finally, some players are re-evaluating the risk‑reward — even with discounts, operational and reputational risks are rising.
Facts and figures
In December shipments already fell to roughly 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day, a three‑year low. By comparison: in June volumes reached about 2 million barrels per day. If Reliance does not resume purchases, imports could drop below 1 million barrels per day. There remain buyers — Nayara Energy and state-owned Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum — but their capacities may not be enough to make up for previously recorded volumes.
"Tighter US and EU sanctions have slowed the flow of Russian oil to India."
— Kpler, analytics firm
Implications for markets and policy
Lower demand from India means pressure on Russia’s energy export revenues — a source of external financing for Moscow. For India it is a trade‑off between energy security, price and geopolitical vulnerability: cheaper crude benefits refiners and consumers, but trade and political risks rise. For global markets it creates unwanted uncertainty: suppliers and traders will look for new routes and buyers, which could affect prices and supply chains.
What next?
If the trend continues, India may feel the need to diversify supplies or strengthen domestic energy resilience; Russia will seek alternative markets and deeper discounts. For Ukraine and its partners this development is not a direct solution, but it is strategically important: reducing the aggressor’s revenues makes it harder for them to finance the war over the long term. The question remains open: will these temporary pauses turn into a sustained shift in trade flows, and how quickly will the market adapt to the new realities?
