What's the news
Rio Tinto has confirmed talks to buy Glencore — a deal that, if successful, would create a mining company with a market value of over $200 billion. Discussions cover both a partial combination of assets and a full acquisition of Glencore via a share swap. Under UK law Rio Tinto must by 17:00 London time on 5 February either announce a firm intention to make an offer or walk away.
Market reaction: shares and background
After the confirmation of talks, Glencore shares in London rose by roughly 10%, while Rio Tinto's fell: investors are re-evaluating the risks and potential restructuring costs. Talks had already started at the end of 2024, but then fizzled out because of differences in business valuations and debates over Glencore's coal assets.
"To win the support of the Australian shareholder base, the coal will have to be sold."
— John Ayoub, portfolio manager, Wilson Asset Management
Why Rio Tinto is acting now
The key motivation is copper. The world is shifting to electrification and green energy, and demand for copper is rising. Combining the assets would give Rio Tinto access to a broad portfolio of metals and Glencore's trading capabilities, allowing it to control supply and margins.
"Global demand for copper will increase by 50% by 2040."
— S&P Global (forecast)
What it means for Ukraine
This is not just a global financial play — for Ukraine, the issue of strategic metals is directly tied to security and reconstruction. Copper is needed for electrification, infrastructure rebuilding and the production of components for defence systems. Concentration of mining assets could affect the price and availability of raw materials for European and Ukrainian manufacturers.
Potential risks: greater market power for a single player could increase market volatility or make supply chains more vulnerable to geopolitical pressure. Opportunities: a more stable investor with strong trading capabilities could accelerate investment in new projects and processing/refining, which is important for the energy transition.
Regulatory and practical hurdles
Even with the companies' agreement, the deal would have to pass multiple regulatory reviews in different jurisdictions, as well as potential requirements to divest coal-processing assets. That means a quick and painless completion is unlikely — timing and conditions will be key.
What’s next
Investors and governments should watch three things: the deal structure (full takeover or partial asset mergers), the terms for coal, and regulatory decisions. For Ukraine, it is important to work on diversifying sources of critical metals and developing domestic processing capacity to reduce dependence on market shocks.
Brief summary: the deal could shift the balance in the copper market and strengthen the influence of major players, which would affect the Ukrainian economy and material needs for reconstruction and defence. Now it’s up to regulators and investors: will the talks turn into signed contracts — and on what terms?
