On the morning of May 25, Dutch natural gas futures for next month delivery — the main benchmark for the entire European market — fell by 4.9%. The reason: Donald Trump publicly stated the possibility of reaching a deal with Iran on its nuclear program.
The mechanism is straightforward. Iran is one of the world's largest gas reserves, a country cut off from the global market by sanctions for years. Even a hint of its partial return to international trade is enough for traders to reassess their positions.
For Europe, this is a particularly sensitive issue: after abandoning Russian gas, the continent is paying a premium for LNG from the United States, Qatar, and Norway. Any expansion in supply — real or merely probable — immediately reflects in price quotes.
However, between Trump's statement and actual Iranian gas deliveries lies at least years of negotiations, verification, and infrastructure decisions. The market reacted to the signal, not to the fact.
An open question: if a deal with Iran actually happens and price pressure persists — will this be enough for Europe to slow down the construction of new LNG terminals currently being considered as strategic independence from any single supplier?
