In brief
According to Bloomberg, European gas prices surged sharply amid fears of supply disruptions after strikes on Iran. Futures for benchmark gas added about 25%, and Dutch month-ahead contracts, a gauge for Europe, rose 21% — to €38.72/MWh as of 08:52 in Amsterdam.
Why it happened
The cause is an almost complete halt to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Analysts note that gas markets are significantly more sensitive to supply imbalances than oil markets, especially when there is an urgent need to refill storage.
"A halt to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz for a month could lead to European gas prices more than doubling."
— Goldman Sachs Group
"The European gas market is actually more sensitive to an actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz than the oil market. This reduction will soon be felt in the physical market."
— Arne Lomann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management
What this means for Ukraine
This is not just statistics for traders — it has a direct impact on state budget expenditures, the cost of imported fuel, and balance of payments. Ukraine, a country that has already adapted to energy instability, again finds itself at risk: higher European prices mean more expensive purchases for state reserves and potential increases in heating costs for households if the market moves upward.
Possible scenarios and consequences
Analysts highlight two key scenarios. In the moderate case — a swift resumption of shipping and price stabilization. In the more risky case — a prolonged blockade or escalation would lead to an LNG shortage in the EU market and a rapid price surge (according to Goldman Sachs — more than double in the event of a month-long stoppage).
For Ukraine, practical steps are important: accelerate agreements for additional LNG supplies from partners, optimize injections into its own storage, and strengthen financial mechanisms that will mitigate the impact on socially vulnerable groups.
Conclusion
Markets are reacting quickly and the effects are tangible. While governments and energy companies assess the risks, preparedness depends on us: diversification of sources, clear contracts with partners, and swift measures to preserve reserves. Whether these fluctuations can be turned into a catalyst for accelerated energy resilience is a question whose answer depends on the determination of policymakers and coordinated work with international partners.
