The NBU raised the key rate to 15.5% - and this is no longer just a technical detail for economists. The key rate is the benchmark that banks use to set prices for deposits and loans. When it rises, loans should theoretically become more expensive and money in deposits should become more expensive. The question is whether banks will really feel this and when.
Why the NBU admitted: it won't happen before 2027
The regulator's key admission is hidden in one line: the 5% inflation target has been postponed until 2027. Until recently, there was talk of returning to the target sooner. Now the NBU is directly saying that fundamental price pressure is intensifying, and the temporary slowdown in inflation in recent months should not be confused with victory over it.
The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine decided to raise the key rate to 15.5% given the persistent intensification of fundamental price pressure and a significant acceleration of overall inflation by the end of the year
In simple terms: prices are rising not due to temporary shocks in vegetables or fuel, but due to structural reasons - labor shortage, high budget expenditures, pressure from war on business costs. This is the type of inflation that is treated with rates slowly and painfully.
What this means for deposits and loans
The NBU directly states that the purpose of the increase is to make hryvnia assets attractive. This is a signal to banks: raise deposit rates so that the hryvnia remains a profitable alternative to foreign currency. For a person with savings, this is a chance to get a higher percentage return on a hryvnia deposit - if the bank responds to the regulator's signal rather than ignores it.
For those planning a loan - mortgage, consumer, or business - the signal is opposite: the cost of loans should rise in line with the rate. The NBU directly warns that the rate could rise further - the regulator is "ready to continue using monetary instruments," and the easing cycle will not begin before the second quarter of 2027.
Forecast with caveats
The NBU itself acknowledges: the main risk is the continuation of the full-scale war, and the second most important is the situation in the Middle East, which affects energy prices and logistics. That is, the forecast of returning to 5% in 2027 is not a guarantee, but a conditional scenario in the absence of new shocks.
The question for the coming months is simple: will Ukrainian banks manage to raise deposit rates faster than loan rates, or will they traditionally take advantage of the moment and expand their margin at the expense of depositors.
