The National Bank of Ukraine set the official exchange rate on June 11 at 44.9790 UAH/USD — 13.5 kopiykas higher than the previous day. The previous record of 44.8437 UAH/USD lasted exactly one day. The euro, meanwhile, remains stable at 51.89 UAH.
Why the hryvnia weakens gradually, not in jumps
The NBU adheres to managed devaluation: the official exchange rate is formed based on the interbank market, but the regulator sells foreign currency daily to compensate for structural deficit. According to ICU, in just the first five months of 2026, the NBU sold $18.1 billion on the interbank market — compared to $14.3 billion for the same period last year. The $4 billion difference is the price of supporting the exchange rate amid growing imbalance between currency supply and demand.
Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has appreciated by 4.4%, the euro by 3.2%. Over the last 12 months, the hryvnia's nominal exchange rate has depreciated by 7.8%.
What this means for savings
Taras Lyesovyy, director of the financial markets department at Globus Bank, urges against buying foreign currency "at any price": the NBU's key policy rate of 15% is expected to remain at that level until the second quarter of 2027, making hryvnia deposits still profitable. According to him, triggers for changing this logic would be an exchange rate of 46–46.5 UAH or inflation of 11–13% — currently both indicators remain within the risk range, not the base scenario.
"Even under such conditions, we do not expect the NBU to accelerate the pace of hryvnia devaluation. It can choose such a scenario only in case of a sharp reduction in external assistance."
Analysts of investment group ICU
Forecast: 45.8 UAH — and this is already the third downward revision
ICU has revised its forecast downward for the second time: at the end of 2025, the company expected 44.3 UAH/USD, in February 2026 raised it to 45 UAH/USD, now — to 45.8 UAH/USD. The main factors: growing current account deficit, record NBU interventions, and inflationary pressure from the situation in the Middle East, which raised energy prices. However, analysts note: as long as international financial support fully covers the budget deficit, there are no grounds for a sharp jump in the exchange rate.
If external inflows slow down in the second half of the year or the IMF program faces another delay — ICU's forecast of 45.8 will become the starting point for a new revision rather than a final figure.
