Bitcoin fell 2.8%, dropping to $79,197 — and the formal reason for this decline has nothing to do with cryptocurrencies. In the United States, employment data was released: non-farm job additions rose by 162,000, exceeding forecasts, while unemployment remained at 4.1%. For a bitcoin investor, this means one thing — the Federal Reserve will have more grounds to raise its key interest rate in September, Bloomberg reports.
An unexpected connection: US job market vs crypto wallets
A few years ago, such a scenario would have seemed absurd: why should employment statistics from Ohio or Texas affect an asset positioned as independent from the state financial system? The answer is simple and practical — bitcoin long ago ceased to be a niche experiment and is now traded as part of a global investment portfolio alongside stocks and bonds. When the Fed's rate rises, yields on US Treasury bonds also rise, and institutional investor money flows into safer, predictable assets. A cryptocurrency that pays no interest and remains volatile becomes less attractive.
This is bitcoin's third attempt to consolidate above the $80,000 mark in recent months, and for the third time, macroeconomics intervenes in this process before the market can stabilize.
What this means for those holding crypto
- The Fed's decision on rates in September will become a more significant trigger for bitcoin's exchange rate than any in-crypto news this month.
- Volatility is likely to increase on the days US macroeconomic statistics are published — exactly as happened today.
- The Strait of Hormuz situation in June demonstrated the reverse effect: geopolitical easing of tensions can also sharply raise the rate — then bitcoin rose 3% in one session, to $65,600.
Bitcoin has repeatedly attempted to consolidate at the level around $80,000, and each time macroeconomic data became a new test, Bloomberg notes.
A practical conclusion for a private investor: you should follow not tweets from crypto enthusiasts, but the calendar of Fed meetings and employment statistics releases. If rates are indeed raised in September, will bitcoin withstand another test at $80,000, or will this become a reason for another decline below $75,000?
