Brief summary
Danylo Hetmantsev, chair of the Verkhovna Rada’s Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy, warned in an interview with Forbes Ukraine about the risk of a "financial tragedy" as early as April. According to him, the budget is currently using funds planned for the second half of the year, and uncertainty around the implementation of agreements with the IMF increases the likelihood of a liquidity shortfall.
What Hetmantsev is warning about
"Not all my colleagues (not only from the Rada, but also from the government) have a sense of a financial tragedy. I do, the finance minister does, because he understands that in April there will be no funds to finance expenditures. Today we are already using the money that was earmarked for the second half of the year..."
— Danylo Hetmantsev, chair of the Verkhovna Rada’s Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy
Context: what was agreed with the IMF and what changed
In November the government and the IMF reached a preliminary agreement on a four-year program worth more than $8 billion, intended to replace the current $15.5 billion program (of which about $10.6 billion has already been disbursed). Initially the fund demanded a number of "prior actions" — from taxing the revenues of digital platforms to abolishing the duty-free parcel limit. After a visit by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, the fund agreed to launch the program without some of these requirements, but most of the unpopular measures were shifted into the status of "benchmarks" with deadlines — mostly 31 March 2026.
Domestic politics: when ambitions matter more than decisions
"I ask a colleague: why are you not voting, you are for business... He says: 'Yes, I know this is a good law. But why should I help the prime minister? I don't like her'... This is unacceptable."
— Danylo Hetmantsev, chair of the finance committee
Hetmantsev criticizes the government for inconsistency: on one hand — agreeing the benchmarks with the IMF, on the other — expanding programs he calls ineffective (for example, a national cashback of 15%). Such a gap between statements and practice raises risks not only in terms of creditor trust but also for the day-to-day execution of expenditures.
Why this matters for the reader
If political decision-making coherence and clear communication with partners cannot be ensured, an acute funding shortfall for payments, programs and defense needs may arise in April. This is not only a matter for the elites — the stability of salaries, pensions and the ability to continue funding critical state functions during the war depend on it.
Brief scenario forecast
1) If parliament and the government adopt coordinated decisions on the benchmarks — the risk of a shortfall is significantly reduced, and trust from the IMF and international partners will be preserved. 2) If political rhetoric and blocking of bills continue — April could become a test of operational political responsibility, requiring emergency budget measures or the search for urgent sources of external financing.
Conclusion
This is not just a technical dispute between parliament and the government — it is a test of the ability to take unpopular but necessary decisions under wartime conditions. International partners rely on signals of responsibility, and society on concrete budgetary results. Now it's up to those who are ready to put national interest first, not domestic political ambitions.
