When Iran partially closed the Strait of Hormuz in February 2026, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil passes annually, it did not remain a Persian Gulf matter. The chain reaction reached supermarkets in Bangladesh, central bank budgets in Turkey, and farmers' fields in Senegal.
Figures: what has changed since January
On June 11, the World Bank published a report Global Economic Prospects. The forecast for global GDP growth in 2026 has been lowered to 2.5% — down from 2.9% a year earlier and from 2.6%, which the bank expected back in January. This is the lowest figure since 2020, when the pandemic halted the global economy.
Forecasts have been downgraded for two-thirds of the world's countries. The economies of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan were hit hardest, though South Asia remains the fastest-growing region.
Oil, fertilizers, bread — one chain
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz became, according to analysts' estimates, the biggest shock to global energy markets since the 1970s. Brent crude oil prices reached $126 per barrel at their peak; the bank's baseline scenario predicts an average level of $94 per barrel in 2026 — 36% higher than 2025 levels, if the most acute disruptions subside by July.
But more expensive oil is only the first link. Up to 30% of global fertilizer trade passes through the strait. Urea (carbamide) prices have surged 80% since February, reaching their highest level since 2022. The World Bank's fertilizer price index rose by 12% in just the first quarter. Next comes more expensive food.
"Renewed escalation or prolonged disruption of commodity flows could further push up commodity prices, intensify inflationary pressure and food insecurity."
From the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report, June 2026
12% of humanity is hungry — even before the new wave
Before the Iranian conflict began, 12% of the world's population was already in acute food insecurity — two percentage points higher than in 2019. In West and Central Africa, during the 2026 summer "hungry season," 52.9 million people will face the brink of starvation. In Sudan, 14 districts risk receiving the official status of a famine zone.
The World Bank is allocating up to $60 billion urgently for the most affected developing countries, with the possibility of increasing to $100 billion over 15 months.
"Lost decade" — not a metaphor
World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill, in the preface to the report, formulates a diagnosis without diplomatic softening: nearly every other developing economy since 2019 has made no progress on the most basic development task — narrowing the income gap with rich countries.
"Little wonder the 2020s will turn out to be what its ominous beginning already presaged: a lost decade — not for a few outliers, but for dozens of economies."
Indermit Gill, Chief Economist of the World Bank
By 2028, developing countries (excluding China and India) will collectively live through nearly a decade without any progress in narrowing the per capita income gap with developed economies. Gill says directly: "You'll have to look to the 2030s for light at the end of the tunnel."
The "worse case" scenario
The bank's baseline forecast is based on the assumption that the acute phase of the conflict has passed. But if energy disruptions prove more prolonged and trigger financial instability, global growth could fall to 1.3% — a level that in peacetime is considered a recession for most developing countries. Global inflation would then reach 4.4%.
Among countries with the biggest downward forecast revisions are the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Bangladesh. The logic is consistent: either a direct hit from expensive energy or disrupted supply chains through the strait.
If the strait remains effectively blocked after July, and central banks simultaneously raise rates — will the World Bank's $60 billion be enough to keep the most vulnerable economies from a debt crisis, or is it merely postponing the inevitable?
