Why this matters now
The Polish labor market is so dependent on Ukrainian refugees that their mass return could change the country’s economic dynamics. According to the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), in a less favorable scenario Poland risks losing more than 0.5 million working migrants — a real threat to manufacturing, construction and logistics.
Figures and sources
According to a Deloitte report prepared for UNHCR, in 2024 Ukrainians contributed to Polish GDP growth by 2.7% (≈98.7 billion zlotys); analysts forecast that by 2030 their share could grow to 3.2%. PIE emphasizes that the market adapted faster than experts expected, but a large share of refugees still have no clear plans for the future — about 40% of adults are likely to remain in Poland.
"The market has adapted to the influx of refugees better than expected, and their labor productivity has increased more than anticipated."
— Polish Economic Institute (PIE report)
Who will be hit hardest
The most vulnerable sectors are: construction, industry and transport (predominantly men) and services, trade, health care, education and translation (predominantly young women). The departure of a large share of this workforce will weaken supply chains and raise the costs of recruiting and training replacements.
"In 2024 Ukrainians contributed to Polish GDP growth by 2.7%, equivalent to 98.7 billion zlotys."
— Deloitte for UNHCR
What this means for Ukraine
The return of part of the workforce could become a catalyst for reconstruction: labor, professional skills and entrepreneurial initiative are needed to restore infrastructure and start businesses. To harness this potential, Ukraine needs employment programs, housing and education initiatives, and coordination with international partners.
Political and practical context
The EU's decision to extend temporary protection until 4 March 2027 gives time to plan measures in Poland and in Ukraine. After that date, states must convert refugees to residence permits or offer voluntary return programs — this is a political window to reduce risks for both sides.
Conclusion
The loss of up to half a million workers for Poland is not an abstract threat but concrete losses in manufacturing, services and labor market stability. For Ukraine, the return could become an important resource for reconstruction if partners invest in reintegration programs and investments. Whether governments and international donors can turn these risks into opportunities is the key question for the next two years.
