Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense released an assessment of Russia's missile potential in response to media inquiries. These figures are not about past strikes. They are about how much Russia can hit without depleting its reserves.
What was calculated exactly
According to the GUR, Russia produces approximately 55–60 ballistic missiles 9M723 for the Iskander system monthly. For 2026, production of up to 700 units is planned — the same as in 2025. Separately, up to 60 hypersonic aeroballistic Kinzhal missiles per year.
A fundamentally new element of the assessment involves RIM-48U missiles for S-300PM/S-400 air defense systems, which Russia has redirected to strike ground targets. More than 200 units were manufactured in 2025. In 2026, the plan is over 480 units, representing more than a twofold increase. The monthly pace is up to 50 missiles.
"Given such production rates for ballistic missiles, the adversary can use up to 100 such missiles monthly to strike targets on Ukrainian territory while maintaining a steady level of their reserves."
— Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense
Current reserves: what's in the arsenal
As of mid-April 2026, according to the GUR, Russia had in storage:
- Iskander-M (ballistic) — up to 200 units
- Kinzhal (hypersonic aeroballistic) — up to 100 units
- Kalibr (cruise) — up to 460 units
- Onyx — up to 690 units
- RIM-48U for S-300/S-400 — up to 450 units
- Zircon — up to 230 units
- KN-23 (North Korean ballistic) — up to 50 units
Why RIM-48U is a separate problem
Missiles for S-300/S-400 air defense systems were originally designed to intercept airborne targets. Their mass redirection to ground strikes means Russia has found a way to significantly increase its overall ballistic potential without building new production lines — by reconfiguring existing ones. The nearly doubled production plan for RIM-48U in 2026 confirms this is not a temporary measure.
Analysts at Missile Matters note that a monthly pace of 50–70 ballistic strikes is realistic as an average, with peaks above 100 possible if reserves accumulate between attack waves.
What this means for air defense
Advisor to the Defense Minister Sergiy "Flash" Bezkresnov pointed out that only Patriot systems are capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, with multiple interceptor missiles potentially required for each interception. Given that Russia maintains a pace of 100 ballistic missiles monthly, the burden on Ukraine's air defense remains structurally imbalanced — without increasing supplies of Patriot systems and PAC-3 interceptors.
The GUR does not specify what portion of the 100 monthly missiles are Iskanders, what portion are RIM-48Us, and what portion are Kinzhals. This is not a detail: different types require different interception means, and the answer to this balance determines which specific air defense systems are critically lacking.
