On the night of July 19, Russia launched 41 missiles and 125 attack drones at Ukraine. The main strike targeted the Kyiv region. According to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 23 missile hits and 10 UAVs were recorded at 20 locations: residential buildings and civilian infrastructure. None of the ballistic missiles were intercepted.
Why they weren't intercepted — and this is not a new problem
Ballistic missile interception in Ukraine is virtually dependent on one type of weapon — the American Patriot air defense system. As Yuriy Ignat, spokesman for the Air Force, stated in a comment for the Ukrainian telethon, "the Russians are deliberately exploiting a shortage of interceptors — currently in Ukraine and worldwide." Cruise missiles and drones are intercepted by Ukrainian air defense in over 90% of cases. Ballistics — almost never, once Patriot ammunition runs out.
"To intercept ballistics, you need interceptor systems. Only Patriot missiles and their analogues can counter such rockets."
Yuriy Ignat, spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The shortage is not local. According to The War Zone, the war in the Middle East has depleted global stocks of PAC-3 MSE missiles. The United States spent 18 months of production in the first days of the Iranian conflict — and now there is a queue of over 20 countries awaiting deliveries.
Kyiv under fire: what is known about casualties
According to NBC News and CBC News, the July 19 attack killed at least 22 people and wounded over 90. Fifteen of the dead were in the capital. Seven more were in Kyiv region. Among those affected were children. Rescuers were clearing the rubble of a nine-story building in the Podil district.
According to AFP, journalists in Kyiv recorded over 10 explosions during the missile alert, followed by a series of flashes in the sky — debris from shot-down drones and cruise missiles falling in various parts of the city.
The attack on the eve of Ankara — coincidence or signal
Zelenskyy warned of a large-scale strike before the attack. The attack itself took place just hours before his departure for the NATO summit in Ankara — where he was to meet with Trump and seek new air defense decisions. "While Patriot systems are sitting in allied warehouses — Russia has an incentive to continue destroying residential buildings," Zelenskyy wrote on X after the attack.
On the sidelines of the summit, Trump announced his intention to give Ukraine a license to manufacture Patriot. According to Reuters, he said: "We will give them the right to produce. We'll show them how to do it." However, according to Fox News analysts' assessments, a manufacturing license does not mean a quick solution — setting up production lines will take years, not months.
Structural problem: how much ballistic firepower air defense can withstand
As recorded by HNGN citing Air Force data, in just the first weeks of July 2025, Ukraine intercepted 4 out of 49 ballistic missiles launched at the country. That is, the ballistic interception rate is less than 10%. According to standard air defense doctrine, three PAC-3 interceptors are needed to guarantee the destruction of one ballistic target. To neutralize Russia's annual production — from 700 to 800 ballistic missiles per year — Ukraine would theoretically need about 2,400 PAC-3 missiles annually. Currently, such a volume is unattainable.
- Drones and cruise missiles — interception over 90%
- Ballistic missiles — interception less than 10% (given depleted Patriot stocks)
- Global PAC-3 MSE shortage — queue of 20+ ordering countries
As CFR analyst Charles Kupchan explained in a comment for Model Diplomat, "even if Ukraine is good at shooting down drones and cruise missiles — only Patriot can stop ballistics." The shortage of interceptors becomes an argument not only on the battlefield but also in diplomatic discussions about the duration of the war.
If the Ankara summit does not produce a specific mechanism for accelerated PAC-3 deliveries — rather than just declarations about future production — the next night attack on Kyiv will have the same results: drones shot down, ballistics on target.
