With every military adventure, Moscow always faces great turmoil. There are no exceptions. The Livonian, Crimean, Russo-Japanese, First World, and Afghan wars all had their heavy and long-lasting consequences.
Russia Cannot Stop
A peace in Ukraine is mortally dangerous for Moscow. But equally deadly for the Kremlin is signing a peace agreement without achieving a clear victory. The war machine has gained momentum, and it cannot be stopped now. For example, how to withdraw a million soldiers from Ukraine and send them back home? What will they do? Where to find a million jobs in an extremely militarized economy? How to transition such an economy to a peaceful state? The task of conversion was never solved by the entire USSR. Now it is even more impossible.
In order to "swallow" peace, the masses and the "elites" must see some acceptable result of the war. The Kremlin has become a hostage to its own maximalist demands. Now, simply saying "the goals of the special military operation have been achieved" will not work. Russia simply cannot stop.
It is likely that various scenarios for exiting the war have been worked out in the Kremlin for some time. And "good exits" have not been found. Stopping the war is not an option for Moscow at all. Therefore, Moscow will continue to fight as long as it can, hoping that Ukraine will eventually "collapse." And that a harsh winter without light and heat will force our society to agree to capitulation.
Hopes of Ukraine, Europe, the USA, and China
Ukraine also has something to hope for. For example, for an economic collapse of Russia, for deep strikes on the enemy's "pain points." Oil, gas, energy, logistics. In other words, our hopes are that the possibility of waging war for the Muscovites will be exhausted.
Europe is moving in the right direction, but it needs time for militarization. The processes of disarmament have gone too far. This time is currently being paid for dearly by Ukraine.
The leadership of China likely understands well that Moscow cannot win. But China also needs time for Moscow to completely lose the ability to resist Chinese expansion. The stakes are very high, primarily control over territories and resources to achieve economic dominance in the world. For example, the Arctic. Control over the Arctic is a significant claim to global leadership for China. And Beijing seems to understand that in time it can gain all of this without making special efforts.
How China's Interests May Be Potentially Favorable for Ukraine
Paradoxically, China's position in the long term may be more advantageous for Ukraine. For us, the defragmentation of Russia is the main prerequisite for its neutralization and the elimination of strategic, existential threats. The Chinese leadership is unlikely to fear the collapse of Russia. Whether Russia collapses or not, China will still be the main beneficiary of this war.
On the other hand, the collective West fears the collapse of Russia, potential chaos, the "spreading" of nuclear weapons, and other horrors from the 1990s. Obviously, the West will once again make considerable efforts to preserve this anachronistic empire.
We also see that the leadership of the USA has somewhat overplayed its hand in global geopolitics. A clear desire to negotiate with China about the division of the world is emerging. Ukraine in such a division is one of many paragraphs in a multi-page agreement.
Ukraine – "One of the Paragraphs" of Global Agreements
Here, it is necessary to make a small digression and note: the role of "one of the paragraphs" of global agreements for Ukraine was assigned a long time ago, dating back to the infamous Budapest Memorandum. Such a role carries enormous risks and heavy consequences for us. This should have been taken care of by the leaders of the Ukrainian state after the restoration of independence in 1991. But they were concerned with other matters.
I personally believe that the moment will come when there will be at least political accountability for turning Ukraine into "one of the paragraphs" of some dubious agreements. There must be accountability. Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are fighting for the right not to be such a paragraph any longer.
Thus, as of now, the possibilities for peace are illusory. We need to prepare for a prolonged continuation of hostilities. Only a serious change in some global arrangements, plans, calculations, and agreements of the "big players," primarily the USA and China, can stop this war. Accordingly, for now, it is not worth believing in declarative statements about "searching for a peaceful settlement." It is impossible to find what does not exist (for now).
