Hostilities in Ukraine, it seems, will not cease before spring, believes analyst Oleksandr Kochetkov. The behavior of the leaders of the United States and China gives the impression that Putin has been unofficially granted the opportunity to resolve the Donbas issue this winter. If he fails to do so, he will have no arguments against freezing the front.
According to negotiations involving representatives from Ukraine, Russia, the USA, the EU, and China, a compromise agreement has been practically reached on key issues of halting the fighting. The potential compromise involves freezing hostilities along the line of confrontation, as the front currently lacks a clear structure, unlike in World War II. At the same time, Putin insists that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) leave the controlled part of Donbas — this would allow him to claim to his own population that the "goal of protecting Donbas has been achieved."
In exchange, Putin is willing to withdraw troops from parts of the occupied Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions. Such an exchange is not equivalent: the voluntary withdrawal of the AFU from Donbas would demoralize the Ukrainian forces and the country as a whole. Moreover, the occupation of Donbas would give Russia a foothold for a potential resumption of the offensive in a year or two, even if the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions remain under significant Ukrainian control. Therefore, the Ukrainian leadership categorically refuses to agree to a withdrawal from Donbas.
According to Kochetkov, the logic of the USA and China is to give Putin time until spring: either Russia will capture Donbas, and then the issue of the voluntary withdrawal of the AFU will automatically be removed from the agenda, or it will not — and then Putin will have no arguments against freezing hostilities.
Because of this, the AFU have still not received orders to leave the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration, even though defending it is almost hopeless. A retreat is currently practically impossible due to aerial control by drones and the intertwined positions of the parties.
The winter will be difficult — and this should be expected.
