Intelligence vs. Official Statistics
The head of Sweden's Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST), Lieutenant General Thomas Nilsson, stated in an interview with Financial Times that Sweden has intelligence data showing that Russia deliberately manipulates economic indicators to convince Ukraine's allies that sanctions don't work and that the economy can sustain military spending without strain.
Nilsson also made a surprising assumption: Putin himself may not have access to real figures — the system of data distortion could have closed in on the Kremlin's top leadership as well.
"It is much more difficult to obtain accurate data about the real state of the economy than about the number of tanks on the battlefield"
Torbjörn Becker, Director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE)
What Independent Economists Know
The Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) prepared a report titled "Financing the Russian War Economy" for the European Commission, which was presented to EU finance ministers in May 2025. The conclusion: Russia's official statistics almost certainly underestimate real inflation — and therefore overestimate real GDP growth, since GDP is calculated taking into account the price deflator.
European Commissioner for Economy Valdis Dombrovskis publicly supported these conclusions after the ministers' meeting: "The Commission generally agrees with the analysis and the overall growing fragility of the Russian economy."
Figures Moscow Doesn't Publish
The real state of the budget is evident even in the fragments of data that Russia still discloses. The National Welfare Fund's reserve as of June 2025 had shrunk to the equivalent of 1.3% of GDP — approximately $21 billion in currency available despite sanctions. According to Chatham House's assessment, this barely covers a year's budget deficit.
Oil revenues — the main source of war financing — are falling. In July 2025, oil extraction tax brought in 34% less than a year earlier — the lowest figure since January 2023. The shadow fleet of tankers that Russia deployed to circumvent the price cap has noticeably reduced supply volumes after increased sanctions pressure from the G7 and EU.
Meanwhile, GDP in the first quarter of 2025 contracted by 0.6%, in the second quarter it grew only by 0.4%. Inflation, despite the Central Bank's rate of 17%, remains above 8% annually. Social spending has been cut by 16%, while military spending is growing.
Why Data Manipulation Is a Strategy
Swedish Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson formulated Moscow's logic directly: "Russia spreads economic propaganda to portray sanctions as ineffective and thereby undermine long-term support for Ukraine." This is why falsifying statistics is not internal accounting, but a foreign policy tool.
Economist Adam Tooze captured the same dynamic in his analysis: the appearance of Russian economic resilience is a central element of the Kremlin's information warfare. If allies believe that sanctions don't work, the motivation to strengthen them disappears.
- Official Russian GDP growth in 2023–2024: 4.1% and 4.9% — but under conditions where inflation is likely statistically underestimated
- Real growth in 2025: approximately 1%, following a technical recession in the first quarter
- Budget deficit for the first eight months of 2025: 4.2 trillion rubles
- Oil tax in July 2025: minimum since the price cap came into effect
Nilsson specifically emphasized: even a spike in oil prices from Middle East escalation did not allow Russia to revive its economy — structural imbalances proved stronger than cyclical gains.
If the EU and G7 truly lower the price ceiling on Russian oil and close loopholes for the shadow fleet, Moscow's fiscal buffer could be depleted before the military will of the allies is exhausted. The question is whether sanctions mechanisms will take effect before internal inflation and cuts in social spending hit those who still silently support the regime: teachers, doctors, and pensioners.
