One figure explains the scale of the problem: 6 weeks — that is how much aviation fuel remains in Europe if supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are not restored. This is the assessment of Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency, who called the situation "the greatest energy crisis we have ever faced."
What Brussels is preparing
The European Commission will announce plans on April 22 to present anti-crisis measures in May — this follows from a draft document reviewed by Bloomberg. In parallel, Reuters, citing an anonymous source in the Commission, reports that the recommendations will be non-binding: the EU will urge member states to reduce their dependence on Middle Eastern imports and increase purchases from the United States.
Among concrete steps is an EU-wide mapping of refinery capacity and measures for "full utilization of existing processing capacity." ACI Europe, which represents EU airports, goes further and asks the Commission to consider collective procurement of aviation fuel at the bloc level and targeted commitments for refineries.
On April 21, an emergency meeting of EU transport ministers took place, where aviation fuel became one of the key agenda items.
Why domestic production doesn't save the day
The problem is structural: the IEA found that most European refineries are already operating at maximum capacity in aviation fuel production. There is no room to increase further. Meanwhile, according to Reuters, the EU imports 30 to 40% of aviation fuel, and at least half of this volume comes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked since the start of the American-Iranian conflict.
Distribution is uneven: Spain, with eight refineries, is a net exporter of aviation fuel, while, for example, Britain covers over 60% of its own demand through imports.
"The situation over the next three to four weeks could become systemic — mass flight cancellations in Europe are possible as early as May-June."
Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, in comments to CNBC
The count reaches billions
The aviation industry generates €851 billion in GDP annually and supports 14 million jobs in Europe, according to ACI Europe's calculations. The price of aviation fuel has already exceeded $1,573 per ton — more than double the pre-war level.
The damage is already being felt: EasyJet reported an additional £25 million in fuel costs in March alone and a 2% decline in ticket sales by year-end compared to 2025. Lufthansa has grounded dozens of aircraft. Rico Luuman, senior economist at ING, explained the mechanism simply:
"Ships have stopped, supplies from the Middle East have been exhausted — alternatives are needed."
Rico Luuman, senior economist at ING, in comments to CNBC
EU recommendations will also point to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and synthetic fuels as long-term solutions — but their share in current consumption is negligible, and in the short term they solve nothing.
The line between warning and real action
The key disagreement between the EU and the IEA remains public: European Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Ittonen stated on April 17 that "there is currently no systemic deficit that could lead to mass flight cancellations," while the IEA is sounding the alarm. The Commission acknowledges that the market is "strained," but chooses rhetoric of restraint over emergency mode.
The May package of measures will be the first real test: if it amounts to non-binding recommendations without a monitoring mechanism — the architecture of the EU's crisis response will remain an empty declaration precisely when summer queues at airports begin to dissolve not due to booking cancellations, but due to flight cancellations.
If traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored to a "significant and stable level" — ACI Europe's phrasing — by the end of April, will the European Commission dare to move from recommendations to mandatory instruments, even if it means direct intervention in market pricing?
