Denis Shtierman, chief designer and co-founder of the defense company Fire Point, predicts that Ukraine will not receive new interceptor missiles for Patriot in the near future. According to his assessment, the reason is US statements about a possible resumption of peace talks, which traditionally precede a pause in weapons supplies.
"The practical consequences are obvious. We will not receive any interceptor missiles for air defense in the near future: weapons always become a subject of negotiation precisely before 'peace efforts'. Moscow, for its part, reads these statements the same way we do, so we expect intensified attacks on civilian cities in the coming days," Shtierman wrote on X.
The comment refers to a statement by US Secretary of State Mark Rubio in an interview with FOX News.
"Over the next few weeks, you will witness certain efforts aimed at determining whether we can resume negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and end this war," Rubio said.
The Secretary of State added that both sides have fairly clear "red lines," and without partial convergence of these lines, there will be no results.
What lies behind "convergence of positions"
Shtierman interprets this formula as a distribution of concessions from both sides: Russia gives up part of the captured territory, Ukraine recognizes the rest as Russian.
"To decode it: 'Bring the red lines closer' means equal distance from both sides: Russia should give up some of the seized territory, Ukraine should recognize the rest as Russian. This is not mediation. This is preparation for pressure," he wrote.
Context with Patriot missiles
According to The Atlantic, during a closed conversation between presidents, Donald Trump refused a request to provide Ukraine with 300 Patriot missiles before winter. Later, Trump also changed his approach to the issue of licensing for the production of missiles for this system.
"This is an absolutely exceptional weapon, and we have to be a little careful about who we license. Actually, we don't license weapons production," Trump told the Financial Times, emphasizing that the US goal is to stop the war.
President Zelensky previously noted that Patriot missiles exist in the world — the question is only a political decision about their transfer to Ukraine.
If the negotiation track truly intensifies in the coming weeks, the key question is whether it will be accompanied by a pause in air defense supplies and how long Ukrainian cities can withstand this gap without additional protection.
