Over nine days, the Ukrainian unmanned systems forces struck 116 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov. On the night of July 14 alone — five tankers, five cargo ships and one tugboat. But Robert Brovdi (Madyar), commander of unmanned systems forces, says: the count is not the main thing.
Why strike what doesn't sink
Most vessels do not go to the bottom after attacks — they become disabled and drift. That is exactly the plan. Madyar explained that the goal of unmanned systems forces is to destroy the feeder fleet, that is, small and medium-sized river-sea class tankers, "as a species." These vessels are loaded at the Taganrog anchorage and carry fuel to occupied Crimea or transfer crude oil to larger Panamax tankers in the Black Sea. Without them, the logistics chain breaks.
"The shadow tanker fleet is noticeably shrinking. It appears that traffic through the Kerch Strait has been halted."
Robert Brovdi (Madyar), commander of unmanned systems forces, Telegram, July 11
Confirmation came from several directions simultaneously. According to Starboard Maritime Intelligence data cited by ISW in its July 11 assessment, the number of vessels with active AIS transponders in the Sea of Azov between June 30 and July 11 decreased by approximately 55%. Reuters, citing three industry sources, reported that Russia temporarily halted shipping through the Don-Azov canal — the waterway connecting the Sea of Azov with the Don River.
Context: this is not a separate operation
ISW characterized the strikes as a new phase of Crimea's isolation — following months of attacks on land supply routes. Crimean authorities declared a state of emergency back in June and banned fuel sales. Against this backdrop, the Sea of Azov became a reserve route for Moscow — and that is where the unmanned systems forces shifted their strikes.
Two transportation flows through Azov have different natures, LB.ua explains: military logistics — fuel and ammunition for groupings in southern Ukraine — and oil export, where small tankers serve as a link between Siberian pipelines and large-tonnage vessels in the Black Sea. The strikes hit both flows simultaneously.
Military expert Mykola Lakiichuk noted in a comment to Espreso that the campaign is resulting in "the entire Russian small tanker fleet disappearing" in the south. Most of these vessels are old, Russia cannot produce new ones quickly, and anti-drone structures that Moscow installed on tankers have not been effective.
What limits the effect
Political analyst Andrii Zolotarov warns of the limits to this pressure: the media and psychological effect of the strikes is significant, but for the Russian economy it is not a long-term critical problem — if Moscow finds alternative routes or raises oil prices to a level that covers increased logistics costs. Indian gasoline and gray-market transshipment schemes remain in play.
- 116 vessels struck in 9 days (unmanned systems forces data as of July 14)
- −55% active AIS signals in the Sea of Azov in 11 days (Starboard Maritime Intelligence / ISW)
- Shipping through the Don-Azov canal and Kerch Strait halted (Reuters, Brovdi)
- State of emergency in Crimea due to fuel shortage — since June
The true cost of the campaign will become clearer when independently verified data appears on how many struck vessels returned to service versus how many were permanently lost — this is what will determine whether Russia's feeder fleet is truly disappearing or simply hiding.
