In April 2025, Ukraine imported only 29 million cubic meters of natural gas — 28 times less than in March (789 million cubic meters) and eight times less than in April of the previous year (219 million cubic meters). According to industry publication ExPro, this is the lowest monthly import figure since December 2024.
Why purchases were halted
The reason is not declining demand, but price arithmetic. Throughout March and part of April, gas prices in Europe remained higher than in Ukraine, making commercial imports unprofitable. Traders simply waited. This very mechanism — the "import parity" — determines when it is profitable for Ukraine to buy gas abroad and when it is cheaper to burn its own production or withdraw reserves from storage.
The backdrop that makes the pause alarming
The April record low coincided with the moment when Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities (UGS) approached the heating off-season with the lowest reserve level in 11 years. As of May 11, they contained 6.02 billion cubic meters — a record low for the start of the injection season.
"This is the lowest indicator in the entire history of observations" — the level of active gas in UGS at the end of May was only 6.72%.
Sergiy Makogon, former head of the GTS operator, in a Facebook comment
By the start of the heating season, the government plans to inject at least 13.2 billion cubic meters, of which 4.6 billion is to come from imports. This is precisely the channel that effectively closed in April due to prices, but must supply the lion's share of reserves in summer and autumn.
Where the contradiction lies
The situation appears paradoxical: Ukraine ended 2025 with a five-year record annual import — 6.47 billion cubic meters according to ExPro. However, this volume was distributed unevenly — concentrated in months when Ukraine was more expensive than Europe or when the deficit became critical after strikes. April demonstrated the flip side of such a strategy: market logic can halt purchases precisely when storage facilities need to be filled.
- March 2025: 789 million cubic meters — peak imports, prices in Ukraine higher than European
- April 2025: 29 million cubic meters — European prices exceeded Ukrainian ones
- May 2025: 501 million cubic meters — partial recovery, but Makogon called the pace insufficient
For safe passage through winter, analysts point out that daily injection rates must be three times higher than in May.
If European prices approach Ukrainian levels again by August or exceed them, commercial imports will slow down again — and then the question arises: will Naftogaz have time to close the gap with its own production, or will it have to enter winter with a deficit that no market logic can cover?
