Russia plans to significantly reduce oil exports in June — shipments from western ports Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk could fall from 2.5 million barrels per day to 1.7 million, meaning a reduction of approximately 800 thousand barrels per day. This is reported by Reuters citing industry and trading sources.
Official version: repairs and fuel shortage
Vice Premier Alexander Novak explained the drop in production by "unscheduled repairs" at refineries and promised that processing would increase after their completion. Moscow's logic: less oil for export — more for the domestic market to avoid fuel shortages within the country.
This partially aligns with OPEC+ commitments: Russia was supposed to cut production since the beginning of the year.
What was left out
Reuters in parallel reports notes something different: Ukrainian drones are systematically striking all three ports mentioned in the reduction forecast. According to the agency's calculations, the attacks have blocked at least 40% of Russia's export capacity — approximately 2 million barrels per day, including Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and the Druzhba pipeline.
"All oil facilities are essentially part of Russia's military-industrial complex and ensure budget revenues that go toward the war against Ukraine."
Major General Yevhen Khmara, SBU
President Zelensky stated in early spring that strikes on Ust-Luga disabled approximately 60% of its export capacity. According to him, Ukraine will stop attacking Russian energy infrastructure if Moscow stops striking Ukrainian facilities.
Why this matters beyond the oil market
- Oil and gas revenues form approximately a quarter of Russia's budget, which finances the war.
- Export reductions face simultaneous pressure from below: sanctions, G7 price caps, and falling global oil prices.
- Moscow compensates for some losses by redirecting flows — in particular, increasing shipments through Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk when Primorsk goes down after attacks.
The difference between "we're reducing for repairs" and "we're reducing because ports are burning" is not semantic: the first is a controlled process, the second is a structural vulnerability. If Ukraine maintains the pace of strikes on port infrastructure through the end of summer, the question will not be whether Russia fulfills OPEC+ quotas, but whether it can physically load tankers in the required volume at all.
