On Tuesday Brent rose 1.7% to $84.32, WTI — by 1.5% to $79.34. Since the beginning of the week, both benchmarks have gained over 10%. Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have increased by approximately 40%.
But the figures are only a symptom. Behind them lies concrete geography of threat.
What is happening in the strait
The Strait of Hormuz — divided between Iranian and Omani waters at its narrowest point — has traditionally been considered a free international corridor. Before the start of hostilities, approximately 20% of global oil supplies passed through it. According to CBS News, tanker transit is now virtually halted due to a combination of two factors: the American blockade of Iranian ports and Iranian attacks on commercial vessels.
According to Bloomberg, just last week six American sanctioned supertankers — with a combined capacity of 12 million barrels — passed through the strait with transponders disabled. Iran has returned to its proven "dark" movement tactics even before the official announcement of renewed blockade.
The price of blockade
According to an analyst from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, the blockade costs Iran $400 million in lost revenue per day and threatens irreversible damage to wells through overfilling. The Brookings Institution estimates complete removal of Iranian oil exports (approximately 2 million barrels per day) as a "moderate" price shock — provided the rest of the market compensates for the loss.
"The US claims the Strait of Hormuz is open. But the growing risk of attacks makes these communications increasingly unconvincing."
ING analysts, quoted by NBC News
A separate pressure on prices came from Trump's proposal to introduce a 20% toll for passage through the strait. After industry lawyers qualified this as a violation of international maritime law, the president abandoned the idea — but the market managed to react with a sharp intraday jump in Brent to $87.
Context missing from headlines
The current escalation is not the first in a year. Following a 12-day air conflict in 2025, the parties agreed to a ceasefire. Resumption of hostilities in February 2026 began with Operation Epic Fury — strikes on IRGC command centers, ballistic positions and submarines. Iran in response seized two international cargo vessels near the strait.
According to the Pentagon, from April 13 to May 1, Iran lost $4.8 billion in oil revenues. Thirty-one tankers carrying 53 million barrels of Iranian oil on board became trapped.
Reuters notes that the Reuters consensus forecast of 33 analysts predicts an average annual Brent price of $90.44 — provided that escalation does not exceed current limits.
What's next
Trump publicly promised "significantly worse" next week — strikes on bridges and power plants — if Iran does not enter negotiations. OPEC has already faced the prospect of losing the second-largest producer by volume.
If the blockade lasts longer than a month and Saudi Arabia does not deploy reserve capacity in full — $90 per Brent will become not the ceiling of the forecast, but the floor.
