Three institutions, three assessments of the same indicator — and a spread of over 15 percentage points of GDP. This is not a calculation error, but the result of one bureaucratic decision: part of international loans were decided to be called grants.
This concerns the USL program (Ukraine Support Loan) — a mechanism through which Ukraine receives financing from partners. Formally, these were loans. Now part of them have been reclassified as grants. And the debt that existed on paper yesterday suddenly disappears from debt statistics.
Why this is not fraud, but normal practice
Reclassifying loans as grants is a standard procedure when loan conditions are so favorable (zero interest rate, long grace period, partial debt forgiveness) that international statistical standards allow them to be accounted for differently. The money is the same, the obligations are the same, but the accounting nature of the debt changes.
The problem is different: how consistently various institutions apply this logic.
Who measures with which yardstick
- The NBU has already accounted for the reclassification and shows ~90% of GDP on the forecast horizon.
- The Cabinet of Ministers in the budget declaration still counts by the old methodology — and sees 108.7% of GDP in 2029.
- The Ministry of Finance reports 98.4% based on 2025 results.
- KSE Institute, an independent analytical center, insists on 101% — meaning it believes the psychological barrier has already been crossed.
The difference between government and central bank forecasts is not a dispute about the future of the economy, but a dispute about which methodology to apply right now.
Why this matters beyond statisticians
The ratio of debt to GDP is not an abstract figure for economists. It determines the country's credit rating, conditions for future borrowing on markets, and how investors and rating agencies assess Ukraine's solvency. If the official figure "falls" below 100% due to an accounting operation rather than an actual reduction in obligations, this creates a gap between statistics and market perception.
The 2026 budget deficit, according to the updated NBU forecast, will reach 35% without accounting for grants — a record level that will be financed mainly through long-term partner support programs.
That is, even when debt "decreases" on paper, the need for new financing remains enormous. The question is not whether it will become easier to service the debt — but whether there will be enough political will from partners to continue calling their assistance grants further, when the war drags on and Ukraine's budget deficits show no sign of disappearing.
